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Between the Shoals and the Swell: Handysize and Ultramax Navigate a Market Searching for Its Floor

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

Maritime Market Review — Week Ending 24 July 2026

The dry bulk market closed the week of 24 July with the Atlantic still searching for direction and the Pacific losing some of its earlier momentum, while geopolitical risk continued to cast a long shadow across the Middle East and the wider Indian Ocean. Across both the Handysize and Ultramax segments, the prevailing theme was not one of outright weakness so much as an uneven adjustment between available tonnage and fresh cargo, with charterers retaining the advantage in several key basins while owners increasingly tested where the market might finally find its floor.

The distinction between regions remains important. The South Atlantic is showing limited energy, the US Gulf is producing pockets of resilience, and the Continent and Mediterranean are beginning to display tentative signs that the summer lull may eventually give way to healthier enquiry. In the Indian Ocean, geopolitical disruption has constrained vessel supply sufficiently to prevent a sharper correction, even where cargo volumes remain subdued. Further east, the Pacific has become progressively more charterer-friendly, although period business and selected India-bound trades continue to provide owners with useful shelter from the softer spot market.

The result is a market of contrasts rather than a single directional story. Cargo is not absent, but in several basins it is arriving too slowly, too selectively or too unevenly to absorb the prompt tonnage available. That dynamic is keeping owners under pressure, although there are increasingly clear indications in a number of trades that downside may be approaching its practical limit.

South Atlantic — A Tide Running Out, but Not Yet Turning

Ultramax

The South Atlantic Ultramax market experienced a modest improvement in activity compared with the previous week, although overall trading remained relatively slow and the underlying balance continued to favour caution. East Coast South America provided some support through transatlantic business, allowing rates to edge marginally higher, while North Brazil remained short of sufficient demand and consequently continued to exert downward pressure on freight.

West Africa, by contrast, remained broadly unchanged, with a reasonably balanced relationship between cargo and tonnage keeping the market stable. The picture, therefore, is one of selective support rather than a genuine change of trend: where cargo is available, owners can still find respectable employment, but the wider basin lacks the momentum required to produce a sustained recovery.

Handysize

The Handysize market remained quiet, with cargo and tonnage broadly balanced but with activity too limited to generate any meaningful catalyst. As the week progressed, the softer undertone became increasingly apparent, principally because available tonnage remained sufficient to cover demand comfortably.

That balance has allowed charterers to retain the upper hand and gradually press rates lower, while weakness in the larger Supramax segment has continued to filter down into Handysize. Larger Handies competing for the same employment as smaller Supramaxes remain particularly exposed, illustrating once again how closely the two segments are currently intertwined.

The immediate outlook is therefore cautious rather than dramatic. Unless cargo volumes improve sufficiently to absorb prompt tonnage, the Atlantic Handysize market is likely to remain vulnerable to further incremental pressure.

US Gulf — Grain on the Horizon, Petcoke at the Helm

Ultramax

The US Gulf concluded the week with a broadly flat sentiment for end-August positions after a notably uneven period in which firmness was repeatedly followed by softer pockets. The US East Coast currently feels under-supplied from a cargo perspective, yet the surplus of fronthaul and Inter-Caribbean demand emerging from the Gulf has been sufficient to keep freight levels supported.

India-bound forward cargoes remain the standout premium employment. Offers for modern, well-specified vessels are approaching USD 40,000 per day, demonstrating the considerable value still attached to positioning for the right forward trade. The first half of September, meanwhile, is beginning to look somewhat firmer as forward grain pricing returns to the market.

For the moment, however, petcoke remains the principal driver of spot activity. The market therefore retains an interesting dual character: immediate employment is being shaped by petcoke, while forward sentiment is beginning to receive some support from grains.

Handysize

It was a difficult week for US Gulf Handysize owners. Activity improved during the middle of the week, with a reasonable number of fixtures reported, but the levels achieved reflected the oversupply of prompt tonnage rather than any fundamental improvement in market sentiment.

Modern vessels are competing for a limited pool of cargo while the spot tonnage list continues to expand, forcing owners to moderate their ideas in order to secure employment. Nevertheless, there is a growing sense that the market may be approaching its floor.

A sharp correction upwards is not expected, but a modest improvement next week would not be surprising should August cargo flow begin to emerge in greater numbers. The key question is therefore less whether the market can recover immediately and more whether the forthcoming cargo programme can prevent another leg lower.

West Coast South America — Ballast, Backhaul and the Search for the Bottom

Ultramax

The West Coast South America Ultramax market remained firmly constrained by a lack of demand, prompting a growing number of owners to consider ballasting towards East Coast South America. Others have been prepared to accept backhaul business at rates in the mid-teens, while a limited number have secured fronthaul employment.

The reluctance of owners to fix too far forward is significant. Many would rather wait and establish whether the market has reached a floor for mid-August deliveries than commit today at levels they regard as unnecessarily low. This behaviour may itself become an important factor in stabilising the market if sufficient owners elect to ballast away rather than chase diminishing cargo opportunities.

Handysize

The Handysize market has effectively entered a clearance phase, with a “fire sale” of tonnage through mid-August and owners accepting lower rates, principally for backhaul business. Yet beneath the weak headline numbers there is a growing conviction that the market is approaching its lower boundary.

The expectation is that rates should begin to improve during the coming weeks as the market moves towards September. The timing will depend heavily on whether prompt tonnage can be reduced through ballasting and whether the seasonal cargo programme develops as anticipated.

Continent — A Glimmer of August in the Grey Water

Ultramax

The Continent Ultramax market remained under pressure as the gradual accumulation of tonnage continued to outpace the modest increase in fresh cargo. Some additional enquiry emerged during the week, but not enough to materially improve the underlying supply-and-demand equation.

Sentiment consequently remained soft, with the market still waiting for a more meaningful improvement in cargo volumes. Until that happens, charterers are likely to retain considerable leverage, particularly where owners are faced with prompt openings and limited alternative employment.

Handysize

The Handysize market on the Continent began the week quietly, with limited cargo availability keeping both activity and rates largely flat. The picture improved as the week progressed, however, when a healthier flow of second-half August stems began to appear.

That increase in forward enquiry provided owners with some renewed confidence in their ideas and eased the downward pressure seen in recent weeks. The critical question now is whether this momentum can carry into the next week and develop from isolated improvement into a more durable shift in sentiment.

For the time being, the market has found a small amount of ballast. Whether it is enough to alter the course remains to be seen.

Mediterranean & Black Sea — Fragmented Waters, Firmer Grain Currents

Ultramax

The Mediterranean Ultramax market ended the week broadly balanced, with owners and charterers appearing largely aligned around prevailing levels. Overall sentiment remained flat, although demand in the Western Mediterranean was relatively subdued.

That weakness could encourage some Ultramax tonnage to ballast across the Atlantic in search of better employment opportunities, particularly if Atlantic cargo begins to offer a more attractive alternative. In the Black Sea, meanwhile, grain demand remained firm, with cargoes destined for Saudi Arabia continuing to set the tone.

The divergence between the two sub-regions is increasingly important. The Mediterranean remains dependent on the timing and quality of fresh enquiry, while the Black Sea retains a more dependable cargo base through grains.

Handysize

The Mediterranean Handysize market remained fragmented throughout the week. Fresh spot demand was limited and insufficient cargo was available to absorb the tonnage on offer, while the seasonal slowdown associated with the peak holiday period across Southern Europe further reduced activity.

There are, however, more enquiries emerging for the second half of August. Standard grain and voyage business continue to be repriced at lower levels, with owners still accepting discounts in order to secure employment. Cement and steel cargoes are proving more supportive from a time-charter perspective, while the Intermed has shown a modest improvement because of the scarcity of prompt period offers.

The expectation is that fixing activity should increase as the holiday season recedes. Whether that increase translates into stronger freight will depend on whether cargo growth can outpace the tonnage that has accumulated during the quieter summer weeks.

Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa — Geopolitics Holds the Rudder

Ultramax

The Middle East and Indian Ocean markets continued to operate under the influence of geopolitics, with commercial fundamentals repeatedly being overshadowed by questions of safety, routing and vessel availability.

The week opened on a subdued note, initially receiving some psychological encouragement from a temporary pause in the Iran-US conflict, which contributed to a downward correction in crude oil prices. That brief improvement in sentiment was tempered sharply in the middle of the week when a Liberian-flagged post-Panamax bulk carrier was struck by a projectile just outside the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, resulting in an onboard fire.

The Strait of Hormuz consequently remains central to the regional market equation. Discussions between Oman and Iran regarding the establishment of a safe transit corridor are gaining momentum and, if successfully implemented, could gradually improve both vessel and cargo availability in the Gulf. At the same time, developments involving Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have made owners increasingly cautious about accepting cargoes to or from Saudi Arabia that require transit through the Gulf of Aden.

The commercial implications are clear. Even if a transit arrangement is achieved, the return of tonnage to regular Gulf trading will not necessarily be immediate. Owners must first determine whether the residual navigational and security risks are acceptable. Until greater clarity emerges, selectivity is likely to remain the order of the day, with owners continuing to seek a premium for accepting exposure despite a relatively subdued cargo market.

The Middle East Gulf/West Coast India market remained broadly stable, with sentiment showing a modest improvement despite limited fresh cargo. Some vessels opening in the Red Sea are now considering Salalah business as regional tensions remain elevated, while heavy congestion at Omani and East UAE ports continues to disrupt vessel schedules.

Along the West Coast of India, the monsoon remains active, restricting salt exports and keeping the overall cargo flow subdued. The Indian Ocean Supramax market was similarly quiet, with limited cargo availability, very little India-China iron ore activity and only a handful of salt cargoes.

Yet the inability of many vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz has kept vessel supply comparatively tight. That restriction has acted as a natural counterweight to weak demand, preventing freight from falling materially further.

The East Coast India market continued to demonstrate greater resilience. Indonesian cargoes remained the principal source of activity, while steady domestic coastal movements kept prompt tonnage well employed. This limited vessel availability and helped maintain a firm market despite relatively limited fresh export enquiry.

South Africa began the week more quietly, although the underlying cargo programme remains healthy, supported by steady coal enquiry and continued manganese ore demand. Several manganese ore stems have been postponed, but additional tenders are expected in the coming days.

Owners have generally maintained firm rate ideas, although some have shown greater flexibility where prompt employment is concerned. Overall sentiment is therefore slightly softer, but the forward market retains a firm undertone because of healthy cargo fundamentals and tightening vessel availability.

The steady flow of South African cargo has encouraged several West Coast India vessels to ballast towards South Africa, thereby placing a ceiling on what Supramax owners can command in the Indian Ocean. Supramax requirements for Bangladesh-bound trips are attracting active charterer bids around USD 18,000 per day plus a USD 180,000 ballast bonus, representing a modest cooling from the highs recorded in previous weeks.

Ultramax tonnage, however, remains in demand. One Ultramax was fixed at USD 27,000 per day plus a USD 270,000 ballast bonus for a Richards Bay–Cape Town–India employment, underlining the fact that owners remain prepared to defend firm numbers where the cargo justifies positioning and the competition for suitable tonnage is sufficient.

Handysize

The Indian Ocean Handysize market remained relatively quiet, although cargo demand showed a modest improvement. Volumes remain below seasonal expectations, but the available tonnage list is relatively tight, allowing freight levels to hold firm despite the softer demand environment.

This is an important distinction from some of the Atlantic markets. Where vessel supply is constrained, even modest cargo growth can prevent rates from slipping materially. The Handysize market in this region therefore retains a degree of resilience that is less visible in more heavily supplied basins.

Far East & Southeast Asia — The Pacific Loses Its Wind

Ultramax

The northern Far East market softened during the week as activity remained subdued and the Pacific continued to feel heavy. North Pacific enquiry was limited, with a 61,000-dwt vessel reportedly fixed at around USD 17,000 per day for a North Pacific round voyage, while charterers were generally rating tonnage in the mid-to-high teens.

Backhaul business also lost some ground, with West Africa fixtures ranging between USD 18,750 and USD 21,000 per day, below the firmer levels seen previously. Period interest weakened in parallel, with a 55,000-dwt vessel reportedly fixed for one year at USD 15,000 per day.

The southern market softened more visibly as owners continued to reduce offers against ample prompt tonnage. Indonesia-China and regional Southeast Asian coal remained the weakest areas, with fixtures largely in the low-to-mid teens, including a 51,000-dwt vessel fixed at USD 12,250 per day for China-Indonesia and a 55,000-dwt vessel fixed in the low USD 13,000s per day for Indonesia-China coal.

India-bound business continued to command a premium, with Indonesia–India and West Coast India fixtures around USD 19,000–22,500 per day, while Bangladesh-linked cargoes remained better supported at approximately USD 23,850 per day.

The pattern is unmistakable. Charterers retained control throughout the week, and owners reduced offers by approximately USD 1,000–2,000 per day as prompt tonnage accumulated faster than fresh cargo. The market is not lacking employment altogether; rather, it is lacking enough cargo concentration to give owners meaningful negotiating leverage.

Far East Handysize — A More Sheltered Anchorage

The Far East Handysize market performed comparatively well against Southeast Asia, providing a degree of stability at a time when larger segments of the Pacific were coming under pressure.

Larger Handies fixing trips south were generally achieving USD 17,000–18,000 per day, while smaller flexible units capable of deck and hatch operations were securing approximately USD 15,000–16,000 per day. Trips to West Coast India, basis redelivery Penang, were also being discussed in the USD 17,000–18,000 per day range.

Middle East Gulf business, by contrast, was virtually absent as heightened regional tensions continued to discourage owners from taking the associated exposure. Backhaul business held up more convincingly, with levels generally in the USD 18,000s per day, including the latest reported fixture of a large Handy for a trip to West Coast Central America in the USD 18,000s per day.

Period and short-leg employment for larger units remained around the USD 18,000s per day, while smaller 32,000-dwt vessels were trading in the USD 14,000–15,000 per day range.

The relative resilience of the Far East Handysize segment is noteworthy because it demonstrates that the present softness is not uniform across vessel classes. Flexibility, trading capability and employment alternatives continue to carry a tangible premium.

Southeast Asia & Australia Handysize — The Balance Tilts Towards Charterers

The Southeast Asian and Australian Handysize market began the week on a slow footing, with freight initially holding relatively well as tonnage and cargo remained broadly balanced. As the week progressed, however, momentum faded. Fresh enquiry thinned while vessel availability gradually increased, shifting the balance in favour of charterers.

Modern 38,000-dwt vessels opening Singapore continued to achieve approximately USD 17,000–17,500 per day for Australian round voyages, although actual fixing activity off Australia remained limited, partly because orders were scarce while a sufficient number of ballasters were available to meet existing demand.

The period market provided a useful counterweight to the weaker spot environment. Enquiry for legs and short periods remained reasonably healthy, and concluded fixtures continued to reflect firm levels. Large eco Japanese loggers were fixing around USD 18,500–19,000 per day, demonstrating that owners of quality tonnage can still command a premium when the employment profile is attractive.

The near-term outlook, however, has softened. Prompt tonnage now appears to be building more rapidly than cargo demand, while fresh Australian enquiry towards the end of the week became less frequent. Current freight levels remain respectable and period business continues to offer support, but the growing imbalance is likely to increase competition for prompt cargo.

A meaningful recovery will therefore require one of two things: either prompt vessel supply must tighten through positioning and employment, or cargo volumes must increase sufficiently to absorb the available tonnage. Until then, the spot market is likely to remain subdued.

Period Market — Owners and Charterers Drift Apart

The Atlantic Ultramax period market remains bearish, with a substantial gap between charterers' bids and owners' expectations. Charterers are generally prepared to commit only to high-teen levels for one-year business, while owners continue to seek rates above USD 20,000 per day.

The recent strengthening of the US Gulf spot market has not been sufficient to reverse the broader tone because it has been outweighed by weaker sentiment in the Mediterranean. As a result, the Atlantic period market continues to struggle to establish a convincing floor.

The Handysize period market has also softened. Spot markets across the Atlantic basin have declined week on week, reducing charterers' appetite for period cover, while a weak first-quarter paper market continues to weigh on sentiment and restrict owners' ability to push period rates higher.

The widening gap between bid and offer is itself a useful market indicator. It suggests that neither side has yet developed sufficient conviction to commit aggressively, leaving period business caught between owners' resistance to locking in lower earnings and charterers' reluctance to pay for future optionality at levels they consider excessive.

Strategic Outlook — Finding the Floor Before the Next Swell

The principal characteristic of the current market is fragmentation. It would be misleading to describe the Handysize and Ultramax sectors simply as weak, because several regions continue to display firm pockets, while geopolitical disruption is materially altering vessel availability in others.

The Atlantic remains the clearest area of pressure. Prompt tonnage is plentiful in several trades, cargo growth is insufficiently consistent and charterers retain the negotiating advantage. Yet the repeated appearance of language such as “floor”, “ballast” and “wait” across different markets is itself significant. Owners are becoming increasingly reluctant to chase the market down indefinitely, and in several regions the economic logic of ballasting away is beginning to compete with the logic of fixing at progressively lower levels.

That dynamic could become the first line of defence against another substantial decline. If enough prompt vessels reposition towards stronger basins, effective supply will tighten even without a major acceleration in cargo demand. South Africa, East Coast South America and selected India-bound trades are already drawing tonnage away from weaker areas, creating the possibility of a gradual rebalancing.

The second half of August will therefore be an important waypoint. The appearance of additional grain stems in the US Gulf, healthier enquiry on the Continent, a continuation of South African coal and manganese programmes, and any improvement in Australian cargo flow could collectively provide the market with the volume needed to absorb some of the accumulated prompt tonnage.

Geopolitical developments remain the principal wild card. A credible and durable arrangement concerning transit through the Strait of Hormuz would eventually improve vessel and cargo fluidity in the Gulf, but the commercial response is unlikely to be instantaneous. Owners will require confidence that security conditions have improved sufficiently before returning to regular trading patterns, particularly where Gulf and Gulf of Aden exposure is concerned.

For charterers, the current environment continues to reward patience and optionality. For owners, however, the strategy is increasingly about protecting positioning rather than simply maximising the next fixture. The distinction matters. A vessel fixed USD 1,000 per day below today's market may prove well positioned if the alternative is ballast expense and several weeks of uncertain employment; equally, accepting a deeply discounted rate too early could prove costly if the anticipated late-August or September improvement materialises.

The Handysize market appears somewhat closer to stabilisation in several regions, particularly where available tonnage is tight, while Ultramax remains more exposed to the accumulation of prompt vessels. Nevertheless, both segments are approaching a point where supply discipline may become as important as cargo growth.

The coming weeks should therefore be watched less for spectacular rate movements than for subtle changes in positioning, enquiry quality and forward coverage. A market rarely turns on a single fixture. More often, the tide begins to change when owners stop competing with one another for employment, when charterers become less certain of finding open tonnage, and when forward cargo begins to draw vessels away from the prompt list.

At present, that process is only beginning. The market has not yet found a broad-based upswing, but neither does the evidence point convincingly towards an uncontrolled decline. In several basins, the bottom may be closer than the headline softness suggests.

For the seasoned operator, that is where the real opportunity lies: not in predicting the precise day of the turn, but in recognising when the cost of waiting becomes more rational than the cost of chasing the market down. The next leg of the dry bulk cycle may therefore be decided as much by positioning and discipline as by cargo volume itself.

Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational and editorial purposes and reflects general market observations, conceptual analysis and personal interpretation. It does not constitute investment, financial, trading, legal or commercial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation, solicitation or guarantee of future market performance. Readers should undertake their own independent assessment and seek professional advice where appropriate before making any commercial, financial or investment decisions. The author and publisher expressly disclaim any liability for any loss, damage or consequence arising directly or indirectly from the use of, or reliance upon, the contents of this article.