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Dry Bulk Supply: Heavier Deliveries, but Ageing Fleet Offers a Buffer

Dry bulk supply growth has remained relatively manageable over the past three years, but the market is now moving into a more challenging phase as the orderbook expands and the delivery schedule becomes heavier. Across the Handysize, Supramax/Ultramax, Panamax/Kamsarmax and Capesize/Newcastlemax segments, the combined fleet has grown from approximately 972.4 mills DWT at the end of 2023 to around 1.066 bn DWT currently, an increase of about 9.6%. Annual fleet growth remained close to 3% in both 2024 and 2025 before accelerating modestly so far in 2026. The main feature of this expansion is not simply its pace, but its uneven distribution. Handysize capacity has grown much faster than the rest of the fleet since end-2023, while Capesize/Newcastlemax supply has expanded considerably more slowly. At the same time, the forward orderbook has shifted in the opposite direction, with the greatest future supply exposure now concentrated in the larger segments. This suggests that the composition of fleet growth over the next two years could look quite different from what the market has experienced recently. Low demolition has so far allowed most newbuilding deliveries to translate almost directly into fleet expansion. Around 33.3 mills DWT was delivered in 2024 against only 3.8 mills DWT recycled, followed by 35.9 mills DWT of deliveries and 5.3 mills DWT of demolition in 2025. During 2026 to date, approximately 32.9 mills DWT has already entered the fleet, while only 2.8 mills DWT has exited. This persistent lack of recycling has kept net additions close to 30 mills DWT per year. The forward picture is more demanding. The dry bulk orderbook has increased from around 8.0% of the fleet in DWT terms at the end of 2023 to approximately 15.0% currently. The Capesize/Newcastlemax orderbook now stands at around 18.7% of the existing fleet, while Supramax/Ultramax is at 15.2% and Panamax/Kamsarmax at 13.1%. Scheduled deliveries for 2027 alone amount to approximately 52.1 mills DWT, equivalent to around 4.9% of the current fleet. On headline numbers, this points to greater supply pressure. However, gross deliveries should not be treated as equivalent to net effective fleet growth. Around 12.8% of the existing dry bulk fleet by vessel count is already more than 20 years old, with the proportion even higher in several smaller and mid-sized segments. This creates significant recycling potential and suggests that part of the incoming capacity could ultimately replace ageing tonnage rather than simply add to total effective supply. Demand fundamentals remain supportive, but not strong enough to remove the supply question altogether. Total seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to increase by around 1.7% in 2027, with iron ore growing at a similar pace, while coal and grains remain comparatively subdued. Bauxite continues to stand out as the strongest growth area, with volumes expected to rise by around 7.3%, while minor bulks are also projected to post moderate gains. The quality of demand growth will therefore matter as much as the headline volume increase, particularly where longer-haul trades generate additional tonne-mile demand.

The central question for 2027 is whether tonne-mile growth, slippage and higher recycling can absorb a materially larger delivery programme. On the surface, scheduled fleet additions are running ahead of expected cargo growth, pointing to a less comfortable supply-demand balance. At the same time, the ageing fleet and the possibility of stronger demolition mean that the headline orderbook may overstate the true increase in effective capacity. The dry bulk market is therefore approaching a period in which fleet replacement, vessel utilisation and trade distances will be just as important as absolute delivery numbers in determining market balance.

S&P Activity:

Dry

Far Eastern buyers have acquired the Capesize "Ekaterini V" - 173K/2012 Bohai for USD 35 mills. On the Kamsarmax sector, the "World Diana" - 82K/2020 Oshima was sold for USD 41 mills, while the "Kirribilli" - 82K/2011 Tsuneishi changed hands for low USD 22 mills. Moving down the sizes, the sister vessels "OAK" and "Juniper" - 57K/2011 STX were sold enbloc for USD 33 mills, while "New Horizon" - 55K/2010 Kawasaki was sold for USD 18.3 mills.

Tanker

In VLCC sector there is only the old sale of "Seeb" -319K/2011 Daewoo and "Samail" - 302K/2011 Universal which are sold enbloc for USD 160 mills but are not delivered yer. On the Suezmax sector, the "Almi Galaxy"-157K/2012 Daewoo was sold for high USD 80s mills, the "Tianlong" - 159K/2009 Bohai changed hands at the high USD 80 mills and the "Nordic Freedom" - 159K/2005 Daewoo was sold for USD 65 mills. Moving down the sizes, the Scrubber fitted LR2 "STI Veneto" - 110K/2015 Hyundai Samho changed hands for USD 70 mills, while the similarly Scrubber fitted "STI Elysees" - 110K/2014 Hyundai Samho was sold for USD 73 mills. On the Panamax/LR1 sector, UAE buyers acquired the "Bluebird" - 74K/2016 New Times and the "Starling" - 74K/2016 New Times for USD 110 mills enbloc, while the "Jag Sparrow" - 75K/2005 HHI changed hands for high USD 23 mills. On the same sector, the "Andes" - 68K/2003 Koyo was sold for USD 13.5 mills. On the MR2 sector, the ice classed "Torm Laura" - 53K/2008 GSI was sold for USD 22.5 mills, while the "Green Planet" - 51K/2014 Dae Sun changed hands for USD 36.5 mills. The "MP MR Tanker 1" - 50K/2011 HMD was sold for USD 29.3 mills basis delivery in December, while the "Leon Grace" - 50K/2008 Hyundai Mipo was sold for USD 22.9 mills. Moving further down the sizes, the "Akar West" - 47K/2003 Admiralteyskiy changed hands for USD 4.5 mills, while the "Easterly Jupiter" - 37K/2009 Hyundai Mipo was sold for USD 19 mills basis December 2026 cancelling. Finally, the Stainless steel "Bow Victory" - 21K/2016 Asakawa was sold for region USD 30 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.