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Dry Bulk: Firm Freight, Uneven Fortunes

Ultramax & Handysize | Week Ending 9 October 2026

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director

The dry bulk market remains firm, but the balance of power is shifting from broad market momentum to regional opportunity.

Ultramax earnings are benefiting from strong Pacific and selected Atlantic routes, while Handysize performance increasingly depends on vessel positioning and the availability of prompt cargoes. The next phase will reward commercial judgement rather than optimism alone.

South Atlantic: Firm, but Losing Momentum

Ultramax rates remain healthy, although softer fronthaul levels, a longer transatlantic tonnage list and marginal weakness in North Brazil suggest limited near-term upside. West Africa remains broadly stable. Handysize demand is better balanced, supported by regular cargoes and Algerian tenders covering approximately 3–4 vessels. Owners continue to resist lower offers, although growing West African availability warrants attention.

US Gulf: Strong Earnings, Fewer Catalysts

Ultramax conditions remain profitable, but a longer tonnage list and weaker US East Coast demand are limiting further gains. Firmness in the Continent and East Coast South America is helping prevent excessive vessel inflows, while a seasonal recovery in activity may follow the Far East holidays. Despite the absence of the explosive fourth-quarter demand seen in some previous years, earnings remain healthy, with broadly stable conditions expected over the coming month.

Handysize rates recovered as fresh cargoes emerged mid-week, but more than 50 vessels were reportedly open across the US Gulf. Competition is particularly evident towards East Coast South America and the Caribbean, prompting some vessels to ballast towards North Brazil. Rates should remain broadly flat next week, with localised softness wherever tonnage accumulates.

West Coast Americas: High Expectations, Selective Liquidity

Ultramax North Pacific fronthaul indications have climbed into the high USD 20,000s per day, basis delivery West Coast Central America, lifting West Coast South American expectations to their highest levels of the year for both fronthaul and backhaul, although concluded fixtures remain limited. East Coast South American activity provides additional support, but Panama Canal uncertainty—with transit times potentially ranging from 30 to 50 days—continues to influence employment decisions.

Handysize operators have moved quickly to secure mid-October tonnage, with most requirements covered and the remaining 20–30 October business expected to be fixed next week. Once this demand clears, later-positioned vessels may struggle to match earlier earnings.

Continent: Steady Demand, Limited Upside

Ultramax availability remains relatively tight for first-half October positions, partly because a significant proportion of tonnage is committed to Russian trades. Demand is holding firm and rates remain broadly unchanged. The Handysize market has improved following an increase in grain enquiry, with some charterers fixing ahead, although the evidence points to continued support rather than a decisive rally.

Mediterranean & Black Sea: Two-Speed Market

For Ultramax the Western Mediterranean remains firm on North Brazil demand, while excess tonnage weighs on the East.

For Handymax stronger Black Sea demand from Constanza, Varna and Burgas is lifting local rates, while Mediterranean origins remain discounted amid limited cargoes. Morocco and East Coast South America provide alternative employment.

Indian Ocean and South Africa: Positioning Is Paying

Indian Ocean rates remain supported by regional demand. Oman–West Coast India employment is achieving the high USD 10,000s per day for Ultramax and mid-USD 10,000s for Supramax, with a Supramax one-year period fixture reported at around USD 18,000 per day. West Coast India–Far East business is in the low teens  for Supramax and mid teens  for Ultramax, while Aqaba–India fixtures are in the mid-to-high teens for Supramax and low USD 20,000s for Ultramax. An East Coast India–China Ultramax fixture was reported at approximately USD 17,000 per day.

Indonesian coal round voyages to India are reported in the high USD 10,000s for Supramax, basis delivery Chittagong, and low USD 20,000s for Ultramax. Strong Southeast Asian demand has pushed Indonesian round-trip indications towards USD 30,000 per day, basis Singapore.

South Africa remains active but broadly flat, with Pakistan and West Coast India employment commanding premiums. Manganese ore voyages to China are achieving low USD 20,000s per day for Ultramax, basis arrival South Africa, plus an equivalent ballast bonus, subject to sufficient bunkers for the onward passage to Singapore. Coal voyages to Pakistan are stronger, at the upper mid-USD 20,000s plus equivalent ballast bonus for Ultramax and mid-USD 20,000s plus equivalent ballast bonus for Supramax. The ability to exploit these alternatives is increasingly valuable, although voyage duration, bunkers and ballast costs must be assessed alongside headline rates.

For Handysize vessels, rising Indian demand and tightening availability are supporting rates, while South African activity is gaining momentum. Elevated security risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, following fresh vessel attacks, continue to increase insurance costs and complicate employment decisions. The market is improving, but risk-adjusted returns remain the relevant measure.

Far East and Southeast Asia: The Strongest Momentum

The North Pacific market strengthened as charterers raised bids and owners held firmer ideas. Xingang-open Ultramax vessels quoted USD 27,000 per day for North Pacific–Southeast Asia and USD 30,000 for North Pacific–East Coast India/Chittagong. Huanghua-open vessels quoted USD 26,000 for West Africa and USD 28,000 for the Mediterranean, the latter on a Gulf of Aden basis with USD 100,000 cap for awri/crossing expenses. South Korea–Mediterranean steel attracted Supramax bids of USD 22,000–23,000, while a Tianjin-open Ultramax offered USD 24,000 for five to seven months.

Earlier North Pacific negotiations saw owners seeking around USD 25,000 against charterer bids of USD 21,500–22,500 per day; the gap subsequently narrowed as bids improved. In Southeast Asia, Batam-open tonnage quoted USD 24,000 for Indonesia–Philippines employment, Davao-open vessels USD 26,000 for Indonesia–Thailand and USD 28,500 for Indonesia–India, and Map Ta Phut-open Ultramax USD 30,000 for West Coast India. Chittagong clinker bids reached USD 30,000 for Ultramax open South China and USD 26,500 for Supramax open the Philippines, approaching the USD 33,000 asking level at Fangcheng. Quanzhou-open period tonnage quoted in the mid-USD 23,000s for five to seven months.

The significance lies not simply in high offers, but in charterers’ willingness to raise bids. Whether this momentum lasts will depend on fresh cargo volumes and concluded fixtures.

Far East Handysize activity also exceeded expectations during Golden Week. Larger southbound voyages are being tested at USD 18,000–19,000 per day, while West Coast India redelivery employment has softened towards the low USD 20,000s. Backhaul voyages are reported at USD 18,000–19,000 to the Mediterranean and the mid-to-high USD 10,000s to the US Gulf; larger Handysize short-period business is around USD 18,000–19,000.

In Southeast Asia and Australia, prompt availability is tightening, particularly for larger Handysize vessels and quality loggers. Smaller vessels are achieving USD 13,000–14,000 for Pacific round voyages, including 32,000-dwt ships on Indonesia–Southeast Asia and Indonesia–Far East employment, basis delivery Singapore. For a 38,000-dwt vessel on the same delivery basis, fair value is approximately USD 18,500–19,500. On 2/3 llegs employment is attracting owners’ ideas of USD 20,000–21,000, although some remain at USD 19,000–19,500, while coastal employment is trading at USD 22,000–23,000. Steel, cement, clinker and backhaul requirements are providing additional support, leaving the market firm, with further upside dependent on sustained cargo growth.

Period Market: Spot Strength Has Yet to Convince

Atlantic Ultramax period rates remain elevated but broadly unchanged, with short- to medium-term business for sub-specification tonnage in the mid-to-high USD 20,000s per day. First-quarter levels remain closely aligned with calendar 2027. Atlantic Handysize period activity is similarly subdued, as charterers remain reluctant to commit at stronger levels. The absence of a meaningful period-market advance suggests that confidence in the durability of spot earnings remains measured.

Outlook: Selectivity Will Define Performance

The second half of October begins on firm but uneven foundations. The Pacific and Southeast Asia offer the clearest near-term opportunities, while the Atlantic remains supportive but increasingly sensitive to vessel availability. The Mediterranean and Black Sea will retain their divergent dynamics, and the Indian Ocean will continue to reward owners capable of switching between employment options.

The principal risk is that high asking levels become detached from actual cargo demand as tonnage lists lengthen. Equally, geopolitical exposure, canal delays, bunker requirements and ballast costs can materially alter the attractiveness of apparently strong fixtures. Owners who combine disciplined rate expectations with precise positioning and a clear assessment of net voyage returns are best placed to capture the market’s remaining upside.

The outlook is constructive, but not indiscriminately bullish. In the weeks ahead, the decisive advantage will belong to those who identify where demand is genuinely tightening—and act before that opportunity becomes apparent to the wider market.

Legal Disclaimer:

This article  is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources and reasonable assessments at the time of writing which may changed without prior notice , believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor any affiliated parties accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on the content of this article. The analysis is provided strictly for informational and commentary purposes and should not be interpreted as guidance for any commercial or investment decisions.Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.