News in English

Xclusiv Shipbrokers, Inc.: The dry bulk market has entered 2026 on a markedly firmer footing, with the strong finish of 2025

The dry bulk market has entered 2026 on a markedly firmer footing, with the strong finish of 2025 and the solid opening weeks of the new year translating directly into higher asset values across all size segments. Freight momentum has not only restored confidence but has also pushed second-hand prices to levels that, in the case of Capesizes, have not been witnessed since the peak cycle of 2008. Quarterly averages from the Baltic timecharter data clearly illustrate the shift. Q4 2025 closed substantially higher than Q4 2024, with the average Baltic Capesize 5TC up by 58% year-on-year. Kamsarmax 5TC followed closely with a 52% increase, while Ultramax 11TC and Handysize 7TC posted gains of 26% and 22% respectively. The recovery was therefore broad-based, led by the larger sizes but firmly supported by the geared segments.

The first half of Q1 2026 confirms that the upward trend remains intact. Compared to the same period in 2025, Capesize 5TC earnings are running 140% higher, Kamsarmax up 70%, Ultramax up 44% and Handysize up 39%. When measured against first half of Q1 2024, Capesize rates are already 11% firmer, while Kamsarmax and Handysize are hovering around similar levels to those seen two years ago. Ultramax earnings are marginally softer, approximately 8% below first half of Q1 2024, but still significantly stronger than last year's comparable period. This earnings resilience has provided the fundamental backbone for the surge in asset prices. Second-hand values reflect this dynamic clearly. Capesize prices for 5-, 10- and 15-year-old vessels have climbed to 18-year high. A recent sale of a 16-year-old Japanese-built Capesize at mid/high USD 32 million implies a 15-year-old benchmark valuation at high USD 34 million, representing the strongest level since September 2008 and roughly 19% above 2024 averages. Since October 2025 alone, 5- and 10-year-old Capesize prices have increased by around 6%, while 15-year-old units have surged by approximately 25%, highlighting particularly strong appetite for vintage tonnage with immediate trading potential.

The strength is not confined to Capesizes. Kamsarmax values across 5-, 10- and 15-year-old units have returned to levels seen in Q3 and Q4 2024. Since October 2025, prices for 5- and 10-year-old vessels have risen by around 5%, while 15-year-old ships have gained approximately 13%. Ultramax values show a similar pattern. Five-year-old units have increased by about 12% since October, 10-year-olds by 8%, while 15-year-old Supramaxes remain broadly stable. A 6-year-old Japanese-built Ultramax recently sold at low USD 34 million, matching levels last observed in summer 2024. Handysize values are also aligned with Q3–Q4 2024 territory, with limited but firm movement across age groups. An important driver behind the recent price escalation, particularly for younger eco-vessels, is the limited availability of prompt tonnage for sale. Owners appear reluctant to part with modern ships amid improving earnings visibility, while buyers remain eager to secure fuel-efficient units with longer trading horizons. This imbalance between supply and demand is exerting upward pressure, especially on 5- and 10-year-old vessels where buying competition is most intense.

With Capesize values already surpassing post-2008 highs and setting a new cycle benchmark, attention shifts to medium and smaller segments. Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Handysize prices have stabilised at strong multi-year levels, broadly aligned with 2024 peaks, but have not matched the Capesize surge. If freight remains resilient and post–Chinese New Year momentum persists through 2026, geared segments may follow—first breaking above 2024 highs and edging closer to Sep 2008 territory.

S&P Activity:

Dry:

Dry bulk S&P activity remained lively this week, with 18 sales reported, while modern eco units continued to attract firm interest. On the Capesize sector, Chinese buyers were linked to the acquisition of the scrubber fitted "STAR SCARLETT" – 176K/2014 Jinhai for USD 36 mills. In addition, the scrubber fitted "MICHALIS H" – 180K/2012 Dalian was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 35.2 mills, basis TC attached till Q4 2026 at USD 27,250/day, while the "EPIC" – 182K/2010 Odense Staalskibsvaerft changed hands for USD 32.2 mills. In the Panamax sector, the "BULK XAYMACA" – 77K/2006 Imabari was sold for USD 9.4 mills. On the Ultramax segment, the "QIDONG XIANGYU XY197" – 64K/2026 Nantong Xiangyu committed on subs at USD 36.5 mills to Greek buyers basis delivery ex-yard August 2026. Also, the modern Japanese-built "BERGE TATEYAMA" – 64K/2020 Shin Kasado was concluded for low USD 34 mills. Chinese buyers acquired the "EXPLORER AMERICA" – 62K/2011 Oshima for USD 18.2 mills. On the Supramax sector, the "FORTUNE TIGER" – 58K/2013 Tsuneishi Cebu was sold for USD 19 mills, while the "LIMA TRADER" – 57K/2012 Qingshan changed hands for USD 13.2 mills. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the "HUNAN" – 40K/2016 Chengxi and the "POWAN" – 40K/2016 Zhejiang Ouhua were both concluded for USD 19 mills to different buyers. The "SIDER ATHENA" – 39K/2013 Chengxi was sold for USD 16 mills, while the ice-class 1C "CS CANDY" – 37K/2012 Tianjin Xingang was sold for USD 11 mills.

Tanker:

Tanker S&P activity remained healthy this week with 10 reported sales. In the Suezmax sector, Greek buyers were linked to the acquisition of the modern Scrubber fitted sisters "EMERALDWAY" and "SUNRISEWAY" – both 158K/2022 SWS, concluded at USD 88 mills each. Also in the same size range, Greek interests acquired the scrubber fitted "FAIRWAY" – 160K/2013 HHIC for USD 56.5 mills. Meanwhile, the older CAP1 "NORDIC POLLUX" – 150K/2003 Universal changed hands for USD 25 mills. On the Aframax/LR2 sector, Greek buyers acquired the Coated and scrubber fitted sisters "FS DILIGENCE" and "FS ENDEAVOR" – both 109K/2012 Namura, for USD 86 mills each. Further down the sizes, the LR1 sisters "CAPE TEES" – 74K/2009 New Times and "CAPE TALLIN" – 74K/2008 New Times were sold enbloc for USD 42 mills to Trafigura. Moreover, the LR1 "PGC ALEXANDRIA" – 75K/2006 Onomichi was sold for high USD 15 mills. Finally, the Scrubber fitted & Zinc Coated MR2 "CABO NEGRO II" – 47K/2006 Shin Kurushima changed hands for low USD 14 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers, Inc.