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Ultramax & Handy Markets at a Strategic Crossroads: Atlantic Strength Reshapes the Playing Field Ahead of the Seasonal Pause

Λεπτομέρειες: Δημοσιεύτηκε στις Δευτέρα, 16 Φεβρουαρίου 2026 07:21

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director

This week’s freight landscape is not simply another cyclical upswing. What we are witnessing is a structural rebalancing of optionality—where Atlantic strength, disciplined ballasting, and selective cargo concentration are reshaping leverage across basins just as the market approaches the Lunar New Year and, shortly thereafter, Ramadan.

For Boards assessing exposure, employment strategy, and capital deployment, the message is clear: the market is no longer reacting basin by basin. It is reallocating power through mobility.

Atlantic Basin: The Engine Room of Momentum

South Atlantic – Ultramax

Tonnage for March dates remains relatively lengthy, yet prompt February positions are scarce. This imbalance has supported rates for South Brazil–Argentina, particularly for transatlantic and fronthaul employment.

North Brazil cargo flow has steadily entered the market for both Transatlantic and U.S. Gulf directions. Notably, a growing number of ballasters are opting for the firmer U.S. Gulf rather than remaining in Brazil, materially tightening the South Atlantic list and lifting last-done levels.

The Transatlantic route is leading the positive tone, supported by a long cargo list. Fronthaul rates are now advancing as well, reflecting a tightening tonnage list. End-February and early-March stems are commanding strong levels, and sentiment remains constructive.

South Atlantic – Handy

The week opened cautiously, with owners withholding tonnage and the market awaiting a fresh benchmark. As fixtures accumulated, clarity returned and confidence firmed.

The primary driver has been tightening supply—particularly in West Africa, where the forward 20-day window appears thin. As cargoes fixed, late-February positions were squeezed, allowing strength to roll into early March.

Period demand has also re-emerged, reinforcing forward confidence. The divergence between spot and forward pricing remains pronounced, with firmer paper underpinning a positive Q1 outlook. The market closes decisively firmer.

U.S. Gulf – Ultramax

The U.S. Gulf Supramax/Ultramax market remains exceptionally tight through end-February. Several fixtures were reported in the “30s,” underscoring the intensity of demand.

While rumors of $40,000 transatlantic deals proved unfounded, the very circulation of such numbers highlights prevailing sentiment.

Charterers with uncovered prompt positions are still under pressure and may need to exceed last-done levels before stabilization occurs. However, a steady flow of Atlantic ballasters is building in the background. Without a material increase in fresh demand, sustaining peak levels will be challenging.

That said, early-March stems already show visible tightness. February is traditionally seasonally softer; whether that pattern reasserts itself—or whether this rally extends deeper into 2026—remains the key strategic question.

For now, the near-term tone is firmly underpinned. Delaying coverage in hopes of correction is increasingly risky.

U.S. Gulf – Handy

The Handy segment accelerated sharply higher, driven by heavy fixing and a rapidly contracting tonnage list. Backstop operators covering own cargo further reduced open supply.

Inter-Caribbean demand from the Gulf remains particularly healthy. The 10-day open count has fallen to 12 vessels, reinforcing the squeeze dynamic.

The market closes decisively firm, though sustainability depends on continued cargo flow next week.

West Coast South America: Structural Tightness, Limited Demand

Ultramax

Demand remains subdued, with a slight decline in salt voyages. However, tightening regional supply—combined with U.S. Gulf strength pulling vessels north—has made coverage increasingly difficult for charterers.

Handy

Rates remain under pressure due to soft demand. Owners are actively considering ballast toward East Coast South America for February employment. NOPAC flows remain quiet, and second-half February fixtures are expected at similarly soft levels.

Despite weaker demand, tonnage remains tight, limiting charterers’ negotiating leverage.

Continent & Mediterranean: Scrap as Catalyst

Continent – Ultramax

The week began softly, with tonnage outweighing demand and scrap rates easing from low-20s territory. By Tuesday, the market found a floor.

Momentum strengthened through the week as demand improved and the tonnage list tightened sharply. Supramax scrap runs are now discussed in the high teens, with Ultramax levels firming into the low 21s.

Several vessels cleared overnight, and forward availability appears tight for the coming weeks. Owners, supported by U.S. market strength, are resisting downward pressure.

Continent – Handy

Momentum stepped up decisively. Scrap demand drove competition for available tonnage, while firm interest from Brazil and the U.S. Gulf provided owners with employment optionality.

Trips to West Mediterranean are being discussed in the $16–17k aps range, and West Africa at around $17k aps for larger units. Period and laden leg interest persists.

Owners are increasingly looking beyond the Continent for employment, reinforcing upward pressure.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – Ultramax

Healthy February demand met tightening supply from the outset, allowing owners to hold refreshed offers. A temporary bid–offer stand-off eased midweek as fixtures began concluding closer to owners’ ideas.

West Mediterranean cargo remains steady, with tonnage tight through approximately the 20th. East Mediterranean mirrors the trend, though cargo count remains thin.

Atlantic support is providing a visible price floor. Sentiment is positive and gains appear sustainable in the near term.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – Handy

West Mediterranean is effectively being pulled higher by Atlantic strength, particularly for Americas-loading business. Several period deals were concluded well above spot levels.

By contrast, Black Sea and East Mediterranean remain subdued, with limited fresh cargoes. Trips to the Continent from West Med are being discussed around $9k aps for smaller units.

The basin closes split: firm West, stagnant East.

Middle East Gulf / West Coast India: Watching the Calendar

Ultramax

Atlantic strength has created a viable ballast alternative to ECSA, lifting Ultramax levels modestly. Supramax performance remains comparatively flat.

Limestone and fertilizer cargoes to East Coast India and Bangladesh are fixing in the low teens. However, upcoming elections in Bangladesh may temper imports.

West Coast India salt exports remain limited. Many owners opening locally prefer ballasting toward South Africa.

With both Lunar New Year and Ramadan approaching, participants are closely watching activity levels.

Handy

Another balanced week with limited volatility. Early March demand appears marginally improved, offering cautious optimism.

Indian Ocean & South Africa: Atlantic Pull vs Local Fundamentals

Ultramax

Indian Ocean activity increased, with a slim prompt list and healthy cargo volume. Rates firmed, particularly eastbound.

South Africa remains broadly flat despite Atlantic momentum. Around 7–8 end-February coal and manganese stems are quoted. Thirteen vessels are open locally, plus 4–5 India ballasters—most expected to continue toward ECSA.

Last done levels stand around $16k + $160k (Port Elizabeth/China) and $17k + $170k (India).

Sentiment is shifting modestly bullish as supply tightens.

Handy

Cargo flow improved and prompt tonnage remains tight as owners ballast toward ECSA. Eastbound runs are strengthening. South Africa remains firm under Atlantic influence.

Far East / Southeast Asia / Australia: Pre-Holiday Distortion

Ultramax

North Pacific activity picked up early in the week as charterers rushed to cover before the holiday. An Ultramax reportedly fixed low-mid $12k for NOPAC Singapore–Japan business, reflecting incremental improvement.

With most prompt northern orders covered, momentum is expected to ease next week.

In the South, activity remains muted. Most Australian and backhaul orders are covered, and sentiment remains cautious.

Last done levels include:

~$12,500 basis Busan (61k units)

~$12k Indonesia–India basis South China delivery

Backhaul demand is limited. Short period ideas require mid-$16k for quality units, though actual volume is thin.

Handy

Intra–Far East freight remains soft. Southbound trips for 38k dwt vessels are fixing in the $7k range, with owners rating higher but charterers bidding $6–7k.

PG–WCI direction has softened to $11–12k as owners rush to secure cover pre-holiday.

Backhaul rates to the Continent are hovering around $10–12k depending on direction. Period for larger units sits around the low $13k range.

Most mid-to-late February stems were covered early. Fresh enquiry is shifting toward end-February/early-March laycans. A meaningful rebound is unlikely until post-holiday clarity returns.

Southeast Asia / Australia – Handy

Pacific rounds are trending downward as Lunar New Year approaches. Smaller units are fixing in the $6–7k range bss APS, sometimes with waiting days.

Australian demand has eased, and Southeast Asia remains comparatively soft. Large Handies bss Singapore are fixing around $9k.

Next week is expected to remain subdued, with many Chinese participants away. Directional clarity will likely emerge post-holiday.

Strategic Perspective: What This Means

Atlantic mobility is dictating global pricing power.
Ballast decisions are no longer tactical—they are shaping basin leverage.
Prompt tightness is real, but fragile.
Sustained strength requires fresh cargo, not just positional scarcity.
Seasonality may be disrupted—but not erased.
February strength challenges traditional assumptions. Whether this becomes structural or fades post-holiday is the defining variable for Q2 planning.
Optionality is the new competitive edge.
Owners with geographic flexibility are extracting premium value. Charterers delaying coverage face asymmetric risk.

We are not simply navigating a rate rally. We are observing a reconfiguration of freight power centers.

The coming weeks—post–Lunar New Year and into Ramadan—will determine whether this momentum consolidates into a broader cycle extension or resolves into a classic seasonal retracement.

Either way, passive positioning is no longer sufficient. Strategic deployment will define performance.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.