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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 25th July 2025

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant & Chartering Executive

& Commercial Director

TMC SHIPPING

Sailing Through the Freight Currents: Weekly Market Pulse & Forward Bearings

Handysize & Ultramax Sectors

Charting the Trade Winds

As we sail into the heart of Q3 2025, the dry bulk market continues to navigate through varying weather patterns across regions. While some routes catch favorable winds, others find themselves drifting in uncertainty. The latest developments in the Handysize and Ultramax sectors reveal dynamic shifts, subtle undercurrents, and new trade signals that are quietly shaping the horizon.

Keep a sharp lookout on market bearings—so you don’t have to sail blind. Whether you’re chartering a single voyage or planning long-term repositioning, knowing where the wind is picking up (and where it’s dying down) is your competitive edge. Let’s dive into this week’s market tides and forecast the winds ahead.

Handysize Sector – A Mixed Bag of Weather Fronts

US Gulf & US East Coast: Calm Before the Surge?

This week brought more movement, but rate levels held steady. Owners found themselves adjusting expectations as bid-offer gaps kept closing slowly. With August cargoes on the radar, there’s a growing sense of quiet optimism, like ships readying for the tide to turn.

East Coast South America: Fog on the Bow

Momentum slowed, and uncertainty crept in. Northern Brazil in particular saw mounting tonnage pressure, forcing rates to soften. Spot cargoes are drying up, and for now, skies remain overcast in this region.

Northern Europe: Flat Seas, Unclear Bearings

Despite a midweek nudge, oversupply and low cargo demand held the market in check. Owners and charterers alike are waiting for a clearer signal, but the compass spins uncertainly in these waters.

Mediterranean: Grain Winds Fill the Sails

With a tightening supply of ships and grain flows intensifying, rates saw a solid lift, especially out of the East Med. The market here is firm and climbing, with the next wave likely to continue upward.

Middle East Gulf / India: Holding Steady on an Even Keel

A stable week with few surprises. Owners and charterers remain in balance, maintaining a fragile calm that’s expected to continue short-term.

Southeast Asia / Far East: North Wind Brings Lift

North Asia saw consistent steel flows and limited tonnage, pushing rates upward. In contrast, southern areas remained flat. Expect the northern lift to hold firm into next week.

Ultramax Sector – Navigating with Precision

US Gulf & US East Coast: Tensions Afloat, But Outlook is Buoyant

Despite strained negotiations, a healthy August cargo list gives this region a solid foundation. Expect a firming trend to gather steam in the coming days.

East Coast South America: Quiet Decks, Steady Hull

While new cargoes were sparse, tight tonnage availability kept rates from dropping further. For now, sideways movement is the name of the game.

Northern Europe: Low Activity, But Balanced Buoyancy

Limited fixing and a reduced tonnage list created an uneasy stability. Without a demand push, downward drift is likely in the near term.

Mediterranean: A Tale of Two Coasts

The West Med followed the broader Atlantic in a softening trend, while the East Med held firm, particularly with Black Sea cargoes. Asia-bound voyages remain premium, and the Eastern Med outlook is robust.

South Africa: Anchored in Strength

Balanced supply and steady demand held the market firm. Minor adjustments are likely, but the outlook stays positive.

Middle East Gulf / India: Stable Waters, Alternative Routes

Rates held steady, bolstered by consistent cargo and optional routes via South Africa. This strategic flexibility is buoying market confidence for the week ahead.

Southeast Asia / Far East: Less Activity, Steady Compass

Despite reduced volumes, rate levels remain firm. Expect stability to prevail, with only minor course corrections.

Summary & Forward Bearings – Eyes on the Horizon

Handysize: A regionally split market with strength in the Med and Asia, while South America and Northern Europe feel the weight of tonnage build-up and light demand.

Ultramax: Relatively stable, supported by tight supply in key regions. Strongest currents observed in the Eastern Med and South Africa.

Volatility: Still present in isolated areas, underscoring the importance of closely tracking cargo flows and vessel availability.

Strategic Focus: Keep a sharp watch on ECSA and MEG—these may hold the keys to smart Q3 positioning.

Navigate with Intent, Partner with Precision

Markets will always shift like the tides—but sailing with the right crew can turn even headwinds into opportunity.

Disclaimer

This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice