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Dry Bulk Market Stuck in Neutral as Freight Momentum Fades

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

The dry bulk freight market remained largely directionless for yet another week, with benchmark indices across the major vessel segments posting only marginal single-digit changes. While larger vessel classes managed to finish the week in positive territory, sentiment in the smaller-size segments remained under pressure.

A closer look at the individual sectors shows that Capesize earnings edged up by 0.26%, Kamsarmax rates increased by 3.11%, while Ultramax and Handysize markets declined by 5% and 1.98%, respectively, compared with the previous week. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) slipped by just 11 points week-on-week, closing at 2,732 points on Friday, July 31.

Below is a detailed breakdown of market developments by vessel segment, beginning with the Capesize sector.

Capesize

In Asia, mining companies remained active throughout the week; however, cargo volumes were insufficient to prevent freight rates from softening during the opening sessions. Market sentiment improved noticeably towards the end of the week, as stronger demand helped reverse the downward trend and pushed rates higher. By Friday, the Australia–China (C5) route was assessed at US$13.05 per tonne.

Across the Atlantic basin, the market faced persistent pressure as cargo availability remained limited. Conditions in the South Atlantic showed some localized strength during the first half of the week before improving more broadly in the latter part of the week. In contrast, activity in the North Atlantic remained subdued, with only sporadic cargoes reported for voyages across the Atlantic and into Asia.

By Friday, the Brazil–China (C3) route stood at US$34.16 per tonne, while rates for voyages from Europe to Asia (C9) closed at US$71.72 thousand per day. Transatlantic round voyages (C8) were assessed at US$44.57 thousand per day.

Kamsarmax

The Atlantic market posted a stronger performance, particularly in the northern basin, where demand improved while the number of prompt vessels in Northern Europe and the Western Mediterranean declined. Similar conditions prevailed in the South Atlantic, where firmer cargo demand translated into higher freight levels.

Indicatively, rates from the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Far East were reported at US$19,000–21,000 per day (delivery Asia). Voyages from Europe to Asia were fixed at US$29,500–31,500 per day (delivery Europe), while transatlantic round voyages were assessed at US$19,500–21,500 per day (delivery Gibraltar).

In Asia, the market appeared to stabilize as increased cargo volumes from the region's key loading ports absorbed a significant portion of the available tonnage. Round voyages within Southeast Asia and the Far East were concluded at US$15,500–17,500 per day (delivery Far East).

Ultramax

The Southeast Asian market lost momentum as both Indonesia and Australia remained relatively quiet, offering little meaningful support to freight levels. Ultramax rates for voyages between Southeast Asia and the Far East were assessed at US$16,000–17,500 per day.

Further north, the Far East market weakened amid growing vessel availability and a shortage of fresh cargo enquiries. Ultramax round voyages in the North Pacific (NOPAC) were fixed at US$16,000–17,500 per day, while voyages to India achieved US$20,000–21,500 per day. Backhaul employment to the Atlantic was reported at US$16,500–18,000 per day.

In the Middle east  Gulf and West Coast India, the market remained under pressure, with congestion reported at several Gulf ports. Fertilizer cargoes from Oman generated some activity but failed to provide any significant boost to freight rates. Voyages to the Far East were assessed at US$14,500–16,000 per day (delivery WCI).

Across the Atlantic, particularly in the U.S. Gulf, trading activity remained relatively busy despite vessel supply continuing to outpace cargo demand. Some fresh cargoes for Asia emerged during the middle of the week, although they proved insufficient to reverse the prevailing downward trend.

Ultramax transatlantic voyages were fixed at US$27,500–29,000 per day, while voyages to Asia commanded US$32,500–34,000 per day.

The East Coast South America (ECSA) market softened amid reduced trading activity and weaker demand. Freight levels for voyages to Southeast Asia and China were reported at US$33,500–35,000 per day, while transatlantic voyages to Europe and the Mediterranean achieved US$30,500–32,000 per day.

The European market remained relatively subdued, weighed down by abundant prompt tonnage and insufficient cargo demand. The limited number of cargoes entering the market was fixed quickly, with little fresh business emerging to replenish activity.

Freight levels for local round voyages were assessed at US$17,500–19,000 per day, while scrap cargoes to the Mediterranean were fixed at US$22,500–24,000 per day. Voyages from Europe to Asia achieved US$21,500–23,000 per day.

The Mediterranean market was overshadowed by renewed attacks in the Black Sea, heightening concerns over regional security and weighing further on market sentiment. Freight rates also moved lower during the week. Indicatively, an Ultramax fixture from the Mediterranean to Asia was concluded at US$28,500–30,000 per day (delivery Canakkale), while voyages to the opposite side of the Atlantic were assessed at US$15,000–16,500 per day. Employment within the Mediterranean, excluding war-risk areas, was reported at US$18,500–20,000 per day.

Handysize

In Europe, trading remained sluggish as the market continued to be affected by the seasonal slowdown. Fresh cargo availability was limited, while the number of open vessels gradually increased throughout the week.

For the larger vessels in the segment, freight rates were assessed at US$12,500–14,000 per day for local round voyages, US$15,500–17,000 per day for scrap cargoes to the Mediterranean, and US$9,000–10,500 per day for transatlantic voyages.

The Mediterranean displayed mixed fundamentals. Grain exports from the Black Sea remained subdued, while steel, cement and fertilizer cargoes provided some support to overall activity. Freight rates for the larger Handysize vessels (above 36,000 dwt) were reported at US$9,500–11,000 per day for intra-Mediterranean employment, US$9,500–11,000 per day for voyages to Continental Europe, US$10,000–11,500 per day for transatlantic voyages, and US$13,500–15,000 per day for voyages to Asia, with delivery Canakkale.

In the U.S. Gulf, the market showed signs of moderate activity, although fresh cargo enquiries remained extremely limited while the supply of prompt tonnage continued to increase. Freight rates for the larger vessels in the segment were assessed at US$16,500–18,000 per day for transatlantic voyages and US$15,000–16,500 per day for voyages to Asia.

The East Coast South America (ECSA) market got off to a slow start but gradually gained momentum as the week progressed. Nevertheless, charterers retained the upper hand, supported by the growing availability of open tonnage. Freight rates for transatlantic voyages to Europe and the Mediterranean were assessed at US$20,000–21,500 per day, while voyages to Asia achieved US$20,500–22,000 per day.

In Asia, freight levels remained broadly unchanged across both North and Southeast Asia. It is worth noting that activity in the northern part of the region increased considerably during the week; however, this was not sufficient to alter the overall market balance.

Further west, the Arabian Gulf and Indian markets also recorded little change, with both cargo demand and vessel supply remaining at relatively low levels. Freight rates for larger Handysize vessels were assessed at US$18,000–19,500 per day for round voyages in the Far East and the North Pacific (NOPAC), US$17,500–19,000 per day for voyages from Southeast Asia to China, and US$9,500–11,000 per day for voyages from West Coast India to China.

Outlook: Waiting for the Next Catalyst

Despite isolated pockets of resilience, the overall dry bulk market remained trapped in a pattern of limited momentum, with only modest fluctuations across the major vessel classes. Larger ships managed to hold on to marginal gains, while the smaller segments continued to face pressure from ample vessel availability and subdued cargo demand. Unless trading activity strengthens materially in the coming weeks, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with freight rates continuing to react primarily to regional supply-demand imbalances rather than any broad-based recovery.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.