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Xclusiv Shipbrokers, Inc.: Global crude oil trade during the first half of 2026 presents a market shaped less by uniform growth and more by a significant redistribution of supply

Global crude oil trade during the first half of 2026 presents a market shaped less by uniform growth and more by a significant redistribution of supply. Based on Signal Ocean data, between February and July, global crude loadings reached approximately 1.05 billion mt, down 7.4% from 1.13 billion mt during the same period of 2025. Although this decline is substantial in absolute terms, the more important development is the changing composition of exports, as reduced Middle Eastern volumes were partly offset by stronger shipments from Russia, the United States, Brazil, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates. The result is a crude market that is becoming increasingly diversified geographically, with potentially important consequences for tanker demand and tonne-mile utilisation. Russia emerged as the world's largest crude exporter during the February–July period, loading 130.89 million mt, up 7.6% year-on-year. Monthly volumes remained consistently strong, although they eased slightly from 24.13 million mt in May to 22.89 million mt in July. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, recorded one of the sharpest declines among major exporters, with loadings falling by 23.2% to 114.64 million mt. Nevertheless, the most recent monthly data suggest some recovery, as Saudi exports increased steadily from 15.78 million mt in May to 18.94 million mt in July. This improvement indicates that part of the earlier disruption may be normalising, even though cumulative volumes remain well below last year. The United Arab Emirates demonstrated the strongest short-term momentum. UAE exports nearly doubled from 10.38 million mt in May to 21.06 million mt in July, placing the country second globally during the month. This growth helped offset the severe contraction from other Arabian Gulf suppliers. Iraq's exports declined by 70.1% year-on-year, Kuwait's by 79.3% and Iran's by 47%, removing all three countries from the top ten exporters in 2026. Their decline highlights the extent to which geopolitical risk and operational constraints have altered traditional Gulf supply patterns. The Atlantic Basin has become an increasingly important source of replacement barrels. US exports rose by 19.6% year-on-year to 106.98 million mt, while Brazil increased shipments by 12.3% to 60.28 million mt. However, US monthly loadings fell sharply from 22.46 million mt in May to 13.80 million mt in July, a decline of almost 39%, suggesting that recent export strength may not continue at the same pace. Brazil has shown a more stable profile, with volumes gradually rising from 10.10 million mt in May to 10.77 million mt in July. Venezuela also recorded a notable recovery, more than doubling its exports year-on-year to 29.53 million mt.

For the tanker market, the reduction in headline volumes was not necessarily translated into proportionally weaker demand. Replacement barrels from the United States, Brazil, Russia and Venezuela, involved longer voyages than traditional Middle Eastern exports, particularly when directed towards Asian buyers. This shift has increased tonne-mile requirements even when total cargo volumes have declined. At the same time, the changing balance between Gulf and Atlantic Basin supply supports demand across several vessel classes, as trade becomes more fragmented and routes more varied.

Overall, 2026 is showing that crude tanker demand is being influenced not only by how much oil is exported, but increasingly by where it originates. As long as the escalation to the Arabic Gulf persists, the redistribution of global supply away from several traditional Middle Eastern producers towards Russia and the Atlantic Basin is reshaping trade patterns, supporting longer-haul movements and creating a more complex, but potentially more vessel-intensive, seaborne market.

S&P Activity:

Dry:

The dry bulk S&P market remained active across the various sectors this week. On the Capesize sector, the Scrubber fitted "CAPE CONDOR" - 180K/2010 Koyo changed hands for USD 39 mills. Moving down the sizes, the Post-Panamax "PONT ROUGE" - 99K/2021 Tsuneishi Zhoushan was sold for USD 37 mills. On the Panamax sector, the "G. B. CORRADO" - 77K/2008 Oshima found new owners for USD 15 mills. The Supramax/Ultramax sector saw several sales this week, with the "LILA FROSTBURG" - 56K/2013 Jiangsu Hantong changing hands for high USD 16 mills, while the "EBURY TRADER" - 56K/2011 China Shipping was sold to Chinese buyers for low USD 13 mills. The "VIVA ECLIPSE" - 54K/2009 Jiangsu Eastern and the "LIANSON HERMES" - 53K/2009 Zhejiang Shipbuilding were sold for USD 11.75 mills and USD 13 mills respectively. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the "NEW JOURNEY" - 36K/2015 Shikoku was sold for USD 19.8 mills, while the "SAKURA DREAM" - 38K/2013 Imabari changed hands for USD 18.5 mills.

Tanker:

The tanker S&P activity was focused on the VLCC sector this week, with 7 sales reported. The Scrubber fitted VLCC "SEAPASSION" - 299K/2017 HHI was sold to ADNOC for USD 125 mills. On the same sector, "DONOUSSA" - 300K/2016 Daewoo changed hands to COSCO for USD 123 mills, while the VLCCs "DELTA AMAZON" - 320K/2015 Jinhai Heavy and "DELTA APOLLONIA" - 320K/2015 Jinhai Heavy were sold to ADNOC for USD 120 mills each. Furthermore, the VLCCs "DELTA ANGELICA" - 320K/2012 HHI and "DELTA GLORY" - 320K/2012 HHI were acquired by ADNOC for USD 116 mills each. Finally, the older VLCC "GRIT" - 299K/2003 Daewoo was sold to South Korean buyers for USD 50 mills. On the smaller tanker sector, the Ice Class 1A "ANCHOR 18" - 20K/2009 Qingshan was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 16.4 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.