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The Tide Turns: A Firmer Sea for Ultramax & Handysize

Weekly Market Report & Outlook — Week Ending 4 September 2026

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

A Market Finding Its Trim

The week closed on a firmer, more constructive note across much of the market, albeit unevenly by basin and size, as stronger paper markets, improving physical Panamax conditions and firmer grain and petcoke demand lifted Atlantic sentiment, while North Pacific and backhaul activity supported Ultramax in the Pacific and prompt tonnage tightened across South-East Asia and Australia; the Indian Ocean remained firm, led by South Africa, where coal and manganese demand continues to meet limited suitable tonnage, whilst tightening conditions in the Mediterranean and Black Sea and heightened Middle East Gulf and Strait of Hormuz risks are adding a premium to employment decisions. Across the stronger basins, the common thread is the thinning of prompt tonnage, allowing owners to defend their ideas more effectively, although the durability of the improvement will depend on how quickly fresh ships enter the market and whether cargo growth is sufficient to absorb them.

South Atlantic — The First Swell

Ultramax. The week opened quietly, partly owing to Monday holidays, with inactivity extending into Tuesday, before sentiment improved materially on stronger paper and physical Panamax markets, some of that strength filtering into smaller sizes as fronthaul rates moved first and noticeably higher; West Africa remained relatively stable on transatlantic employment, while Far East levels eased overall week-on-week.

Handysize. East Coast South America is beginning to find its footing, with sentiment improving and fixtures increasingly concluded above last-done levels as mid-September demand builds, although end-September requirements have yet to be fully introduced; transatlantic cargoes are around the mid-$20,000s depending on specifications, coastal employment for 34,000–35,000 dwt vessels is in the low-$20,000s, and West Coast South America is likely to see fixtures with a “3” in front, a marked improvement on last week, while North Brazil remains comparatively weak as US Gulf/Caribbean ballasters continue to cap the market.

US Gulf — Grain in the Sails

Ultramax. The Gulf opened bullishly, with relatively tight grain tonnage reinforced by a notable rise in petcoke demand, concentrating activity on Far East fronthaul employment as owners sought longer-duration grain business and bids steadily rose; an older Dolphin unit was reported fixed at $31,000 for grain to China, better-specification Ultramaxes continued to command substantial premiums for longer grain contracts, transatlantic business traded at $33,000–34,000, and Inter-Gulf employment remained around $22,000–23,000/day, with owners generally preferring to preserve their positioning for potentially stronger fronthaul returns rather than commit regionally.

Handysize. After a slow opening, with spot tonnage and limited fresh cargo weighing on the market, demand strengthened and charterers raised bids, accelerating fixing and absorbing a meaningful share of the spot fleet, which allowed owners to defend their positions more firmly; last-done levels remained broadly in line with, or marginally above, last week, but the improvement in sentiment was more pronounced than the rate movement, leaving supply and demand considerably closer to balance.

West Coast South America — A Narrowing Horizon

Ultramax. Rates remain supported by East Coast South America at around $25,000, although West Coast fronthaul demand should wind down for the remainder of September, encouraging more vessels either to seek US East Coast employment via Magellan or ballast towards East Coast South America.

Handysize. Most lower-priced prompt tonnage has cleared, leaving relatively few Handysizes for mid-September, and although subdued demand should initially keep rates broadly stable, firmer East Coast South America conditions should exert upward pressure; operators have also taken period tonnage ex-West Coast South America for first legs from East Coast South America, although this should diminish as September Handy availability becomes increasingly constrained.

Continent — Tonnage Under Pressure

Ultramax. Activity gathered pace through the week, with substantial fixing towards the latter stages as charterers moved quickly to cover available ships against a tightening list; healthy demand, limited fresh tonnage and several ballasters heading towards the US Gulf have kept supply snug, while a healthy forward book is reinforcing owners’ confidence and allowing rates to edge higher.

Handysize. The market offered mixed signals as a small surge of second-half September cargo emerged while some prompt vessels were still seeking stems without waiting days; owners able to delay fixing generally did so, while those without that flexibility accepted somewhat lower rates, and with most prompt tonnage now cleared the second half of September is more balanced, although higher bunker prices are making charterers’ voyage-rate expectations harder to achieve.

Mediterranean & Black Sea — A Tightening Thalassa

Ultramax. Spot activity remained broadly unchanged week-on-week, while forward fixtures achieved slightly healthier levels with owners retaining the stronger hand; East Mediterranean/Black Sea tonnage is tightening, with few prompt candidates left, while West Mediterranean remained slightly softer although rates on a couple of routes moved above the latest fixtures.

Handysize. Spot activity was similarly paced, while forward business achieved somewhat firmer levels in favour of owners; East Mediterranean/Black Sea availability is tightening, with few prompt vessels remaining.

Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa — Risk Beneath the Waterline

Ultramax. The Indian Ocean retains a firm undertone, particularly for prompt tonnage, with fresh fixing on both Indian coasts and South Africa–China remaining the strongest long-haul sector as limited prompt availability, steady coal demand and Middle East Gulf uncertainty support sentiment; renewed Iran/US strike exchanges have also lifted FFA sentiment and increased operational caution. West Coast India remains firm, with Oman/West Coast India business around $20,000/day DOP WCI and smaller units around the mid-$teens, while East Coast India continues to benefit from coal-driven coastal demand, with inter-East Coast India and coastal employment broadly in the high-$10,000s to low-$20,000s; firmer Pacific sentiment should support vessels opening there, particularly on Indonesia–India runs, where some Ultramaxes are now hearing $20,000s, while East Coast India–China remains around last week’s levels at the low-$10,000s for Supramax and mid-$10,000s for Ultramax. South Africa remains the strongest Indian Ocean sector, with prompt manganese ore and coal enquiries supporting the cargo list and several Ultramaxes reportedly fixed APS Port Elizabeth/China in the mid-$20,000s plus equivalent ballast bonus, and relatively more for Pakistan, reflecting solid charterer demand and limited modern tonnage, with fuel-efficient and scrubber-fitted ships particularly sought after.

Handysize. The week was subdued, with West Coast India and Oman well supplied and some vessels remaining spot for several days or ballasting eastwards, while East Coast India remained comparatively tight for September dates; renewed US-Iran strikes and shipping incidents around the Strait of Hormuz have increased caution over Gulf employment, with Red Sea risks likewise keeping owners wary, particularly on Saudi business.

Far East & South-East Asia — Pacific Waters Firm

Ultramax. The North enjoyed a firmer week on North Pacific, backhaul and period enquiry, with a 63,000 dwt vessel reportedly fixed at $21,000/day for a North Pacific/South-East Asia round voyage, suitable North Pacific employment remaining around the low-$20,000s, West Africa backhaul in the low-$20,000s and short-period Ultramax business around $22,000/day, as controlled prompt supply enabled owners to maintain firmer ideas. In the South, India–Bangladesh remained the principal driver despite the continuing gap between owners’ expectations and charterers’ bids, with regional coal generally in the mid-to-high teens, a 63,000 dwt vessel opening Singapore fixed at $20,000/day for Indonesia–South China coal, a 64,000 dwt vessel reportedly fixed at $28,000/day via Campha to Chittagong for clinker, another 64,000 dwt vessel heard on subjects at $23,000/day passing Singapore for Australia–Korea salt, and short-period business around $22,250/day, leaving the southern market firm overall.

Far East Handysize — The Backhaul Gathers Way

Southbound trips remain strong at broadly last week’s levels, with larger Handysizes in the $18,000s and smaller units around $15,000, while West Coast India activity has been less pronounced but owners continue to target the mid-$20,000s against charterers’ indications around $20,000; backhaul to Continent/Mediterranean has firmed to around $20,000, West Coast Central America trips are around $22,000, and period levels remain broadly unchanged, with larger units in the high-$10,000s and one-year business around $18,000 against approximately $17,000 for similar tonnage.

South-East Asia & Australia — Prompt Tonnage Runs Thin

The Handy market began broadly balanced before prompt tonnage was progressively absorbed, with consistent Australia round-voyage enquiry, particularly on West Coast business, increasingly meeting limited vessel availability; fair value for 38,000 dwt vessels opening Singapore is now approximately $18,500–19,500/day for Australia round voyages, Australian coastal business remains comparatively stable in the mid-to-high $20,000s/day, legs activity is healthy and clean large eco Japanese loggers continue to command around $19,500/day. The decisive change has been the shift in the supply-demand balance towards owners, although whether this develops into a broader rate improvement will depend on the speed of fresh tonnage entering the market and the persistence of enquiry.

Period — Atlantic Patience, Pacific Premium

The Atlantic Ultramax period market remains bullish into Q4, with the US Gulf showing the strongest week-on-week improvement, although one-year activity remains limited as charterers resist commitments above $20,000/day while owners remain firm; short- and medium-period demand is materially healthier, with rates generally in the mid-$20,000s across the Atlantic. Atlantic Handysize period sentiment has likewise strengthened, but activity remains limited as owners hesitate to commit tonnage while the Pacific retains a meaningful premium, with Pacific spot earnings approximately $3,300/day above Atlantic levels and consequently keeping Atlantic period supply tight.

Strategic Outlook — Holding the Helm

September begins with a firmer underlying market structure than the week opened with, although the improvement is not yet sufficiently broad to warrant an aggressive call; nevertheless, prompt tonnage is clearing, forward books are healthier, charterers are becoming more competitive and owners are increasingly willing to wait for better employment. Near-term Ultramax opportunities remain strongest in US Gulf fronthaul, South Africa–Far East and selected Pacific trades, while Handysize attention should remain on East Coast South America, the Pacific, Australia and tightening Mediterranean/Black Sea positions, with Atlantic period supply likely to remain constrained while the Pacific premium persists.

Positioning and routing will therefore remain decisive, favouring regions where prompt supply is tightening and cargo visibility improving, while avoiding unnecessarily short regional employment where the opportunity cost of stronger fronthaul or long-haul business is rising; Middle East and Red Sea exposure should continue to be judged not merely by headline freight but by operational risk, insurance considerations and routing alternatives. Our base case is for a steady to moderately firmer market rather than a broad-based rally, with faster-than-expected tightening of prompt tonnage the principal upside risk and renewed vessel supply without corresponding cargo growth the main downside risk; for now, the balance of evidence favours owners, and disciplined positioning should enable well-managed tonnage to capture the improving market without relying on speculative rate assumptions.

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This article  is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.