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Dry Bulk Market Finds Its Footing After a Prolonged Soft Patch

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

After a challenging six‑week stretch of downward pressure, the dry bulk market is finally showing signs of meaningful recovery. The Baltic Dry Index posted a weekly gain of 12.44%, adding 195 points to close at 1,762 on Friday, 23 January. The rebound was led decisively by the larger sizes, with Capes advancing first and the smaller segments following at a more measured pace—a pattern that often signals the early stages of broader market stabilisation.

Capesize: Asia Sets the Pace as the Atlantic Follows

The Capesize sector was the clear driver of momentum. In the Pacific, miners remained active, cargo volumes were healthy, and available tonnage gradually tightened, creating the conditions for a steady rise in rates. The Australia–China C5 route closed at USD 7.86 per tonne. The Atlantic also strengthened, both north and south. Brazil and West Africa saw improved demand, while the North Atlantic benefited from increased flows to both Asia and the opposite side of the basin. By the end of the week, C3 (Brazil–China) stood at USD 21.78 per tonne, C9 (Europe–Asia) at USD 46,600 per day, and C8 (trans‑Atlantic round voyage) at USD 26,340 per day.

Kamsarmax: Positive Momentum Across Both Basins

The Kamsarmax market enjoyed a constructive week on both sides of the globe, despite a hesitant start. In the North Atlantic, activity picked up for both trans‑Atlantic and eastbound business, while the South Atlantic improved at a slower pace. Rates from the East Coast of South America to the Far East settled at USD 15,000–17,000 per day (delivery Asia), while Europe–Asia voyages fixed at USD 21,000–23,000 per day. Trans‑Atlantic round voyages hovered around USD 14,000–16,000 per day. In Asia, the market was shaped by North Pacific grain cargoes, the strengthening South Atlantic, and renewed interest in period employment. Round voyages in Southeast Asia–Far East traded at USD 10,000–12,000 per day.

Ultramax: Firmer Tones in Asia and the Atlantic, Steady in the Mediterranean

The Ultramax segment also saw a firmer tone across key regions. Southeast Asia remained active, supported by Australian and Indonesian cargoes, with rates at USD 9,000–10,500 per day for voyages into the Far East. In the broader Far East, charterers moved to cover positions, lifting rates for both NOPAC and backhaul business. NOPAC rounds fixed at USD 9,500–11,000 per day, trips to India at USD 10,000–11,500 per day, and backhauls to the Atlantic at USD 8,000–9,500 per day. The Middle East Gulf and West Coast India held steady, with AG–WCI to the Far East at USD 11,500–13,000 per day and short regional trips at USD 11,000–12,500 per day. Atlantic‑bound voyages fixed at USD 8,500–10,000 per day.

In the Atlantic, the US Gulf strengthened on the back of increased cargo flow and the absorption of available tonnage. Mid‑week, a rise in supply allowed charterers to push back slightly, but the market remained firm. USG trans‑Atlantic trips fixed at USD 19,000–20,500 per day, while USG–Asia reached USD 21,500–23,000 per day. The ECSA region recovered, supported by Panamax strength, with Ultramax rates to Southeast Asia–China at USD 22,500–24,000 per day and trans‑Atlantic voyages at USD 21,500–23,000 per day. Europe showed stabilising tendencies, with limited tonnage and steady scrap demand. Local rounds traded at USD 13,500–15,000 per day, scrap runs to the Mediterranean at USD 17,500–19,000 per day, and trips to Asia at USD 17,000–18,500 per day. The Mediterranean began the week on a firmer footing due to a shortage of ships and increased cargo flow, though conditions normalised mid‑week. Voyages to Asia fixed at USD 15,000–16,500 per day, trans‑Atlantic trips at USD 7,500–9,000 per day, and intra‑Med employment at USD 11,000–12,500 per day.

Handysize: Modest Fluctuations but a Firming Undertone

The Handysize market delivered a mixed but broadly positive performance. In Europe, fluctuations persisted, though rising FFAs helped support sentiment. Larger Handies fixed USD 9,500–11,000 per day for round voyages, USD 13,000–14,500 per day for scrap runs into the Mediterranean, and USD 7,000–8,500 per day for trans‑Atlantic trips. The Mediterranean appeared to find a floor, gradually recovering despite modest cargo flow. Some charterers began offering slightly higher numbers to secure prompt tonnage. Larger units (36,000+ DWT) fixed USD 6,000–7,500 per day for intra‑Med voyages, USD 7,000–8,500 per day for trips to Europe, USD 6,500–8,000 per day for trans‑Atlantic employment, and USD 10,000–11,500 per day for trips to Asia.

Across the Atlantic, the US Gulf maintained a strong tone, supported by heavy February enquiry. Rates to Europe–Mediterranean stood at USD 15,500–17,000 per day, while USG–Asia fixed at USD 14,500–16,000 per day. The ECSA market opened the week with momentum due to a shortage of larger Handies, resulting in early fixtures at slightly higher levels. As the week progressed, activity eased. Rates settled at USD 17,000–18,500 per day for trans‑Atlantic voyages and USD 16,000–17,500 per day for trips to Asia.

In Asia, the week began quietly in both the north and south, but as available tonnage thinned and fresh cargoes emerged, the market stabilised. The Middle East Gulf and India remained balanced, with little deviation from recent levels. Far East and NOPAC rounds fixed at USD 7,500–9,000 per day, Southeast Asia–China at USD 11,500–13,000 per day, and West Coast India–China at USD 6,500–8,000 per day.

Conclusion: A Recovery with Substance—But Still Fragile

In summary, the dry bulk market appears to be entering a phase of measured recovery. The improvement is not speculative; it is grounded in real cargo demand, tightening supply in key regions, and a more constructive sentiment across the basin. Still, the recovery remains delicate. Sustained demand and stability in commodity flows will be essential if this rebound is to evolve into a durable upward trend. For now, the message is clear: the dry bulk market is back on its feet—and moving with purpose.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.