By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

In a week where global dry bulk flows shifted like a restless tide, the Ultramax and Handysize sectors navigated a landscape of mixed currents, subtle opportunities, and pockets of tightening supply. Across the major basins, the market displayed a blend of resilience and caution—an equilibrium familiar to those who have spent years reading the barometer of maritime trade.

This chronicle charts the week’s developments with a clear eye on what lies ahead, offering insight shaped by experience, commercial instinct, and a deep appreciation for the maritime ethos that has guided seafarers since the days of ancient thalassocracy.

ECSA’s Ultramax market staged a modest comeback, buoyed by a livelier enquiry list and a more confident tone among owners. The Panamax arbitrage opened the door for larger Ultras to command firmer ideas, though an ample fleet kept any rally in check. Stronger pull from West Africa reduced the need for speculative ballasting, tightening the screws just enough to narrow bid–offer gaps on fronthaul business. Optimism is present—but measured, like a captain steering through improving yet still unsettled seas.

Handysize sentiment held steady, carried by early‑week momentum before easing into calmer waters. Larger units bound for South Brazil enjoyed brief support thanks to a thinner tonnage list, but forward pricing for February and March remained flat. The market feels poised—neither drifting nor advancing—awaiting a catalyst to break the monotony.

The week opened with a strong breeze behind the Ultramax sector, driven by healthy transatlantic demand and supportive paper sentiment. Yet as more vessels made landfall, the wind slackened. Seasonal softness—exacerbated by the approach of Chinese New Year—cast a shadow over forward expectations. Spot returns remain respectable, but the horizon suggests a softer swell ahead as inbound supply builds and charterers regain the upper hand.

Handysize owners enjoyed a more spirited week, with February cargoes flooding the market and mid‑teen levels achieved across multiple routes. Even so, the rally is expected to ease as early‑month stems are absorbed. For now, the Gulf remains lively, but the undertow of normalisation is already forming.

Ultramax rates along the WCSA coast held steady, with limited fresh impetus. A looming snowstorm on the US East Coast may spur additional salt demand, offering a potential short‑term lift. Handysize availability in Chile remains tight, prompting some charterers to consider ballasting from ECSA—an early sign of pressure building beneath the surface.

The Continent appears to have found its short‑term bottom. A leaner prompt tonnage list allowed owners to defend levels, particularly on scrap runs, though demand itself remains subdued. Should fresh cargo emerge, the region could see a more meaningful push; without it, any gains will remain situational rather than structural.

Handysize trading settled into a more predictable rhythm, with the paper market lending stability. Owners remain cautiously optimistic, though enquiry levels still dictate the tempo. Rates into West Africa and the East Mediterranean continue to trade within a narrow, familiar band.

Spot levels firmed on the back of a tight prompt list, though the outlook into early February is more balanced as additional candidates appear. The Western Med remains tighter than the East, where supply is more comfortable and enquiry modest. The region feels like a harbour at slack tide—stable for now, but ready to shift with the next surge of cargo.

Handysize sentiment has begun to turn upward. Owners are holding their ground, forcing charterers to sharpen bids for prompt cover. Fresh enquiry—cement, grains, and select fronthaul stems—has injected welcome energy into the region. The market is not roaring, but it is certainly stirring.

The MEG–Indian Ocean corridor traded largely sideways, with only minor adjustments across routes. The MEG–WCI lane stabilised after recent softness, supported by a slight tightening in prompt supply. South Africa was more animated, with a healthy flow of east‑bound cargo drawing additional ballasters and nudging rates upward. Bid–offer gaps persist on ore and coal stems, but owners are increasingly confident in defending their ground.

Handysize activity remained subdued, with rates hovering around USD 9,000–10,000. Ample supply continues to weigh on sentiment, and several charterers appear content to wait for clearer signals before fixing.

The Pacific split into two distinct theatres this week. In the North, a surge in NOPAC demand tightened supply and pushed rates into the mid‑teens, with owners favouring shorter, tactical employment. In the South, Indonesian coal remained lacklustre, keeping sentiment subdued despite steady Australian volumes and late‑week fixing activity. The market feels like a vessel with uneven trim—buoyant in the bow, heavy in the stern.

Handysize conditions improved slightly as oversupply eased. Larger, more versatile units—particularly box‑shaped vessels—fared better, while smaller ships continued to face headwinds. The region remains broadly flat, but the tone is no longer as heavy as in previous weeks.

Backhaul rates held firm, with mid‑teen returns for Continent destinations and low‑teens for the Mediterranean. Period interest picked up slightly as charterers sought to secure cover ahead of the post‑CNY phase. Larger Handysize units are now achieving levels in the low‑teens for short employment.

The Australian Handy market showed signs of bottoming out, with a more balanced cargo‑to‑tonnage ratio emerging. Larger units benefited from a mild squeeze, particularly on regional voyages. Coastal employment remained steady, with mid‑teen returns achievable for 38,000 dwt vessels. Period interest persisted, though bid–offer spreads remain wide.

The coming week will be shaped by three primary forces:

Cargo programme visibility across grains, coal, and ores

Fleet positioning, particularly in tightening basins

Seasonal and geopolitical factors, from winter weather to shifting export schedules

The market enters February with a steadier keel than earlier in the month, though still reliant on incremental demand to build momentum. For owners and operators alike, this is a moment for strategic navigation—not rash manoeuvres. Those who position their fleets with foresight, discipline, and a touch of maritime phronesis will be best placed to capture the opportunities that emerge as the seasonal tide turns.

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.