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Dry Bulk in the Doldrums: A Market Holding Course While Waiting for the Next Wind

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

The global dry bulk market spent the past week sailing through deceptively calm waters — steady enough to avoid concern, yet lacking the fresh breeze needed for real momentum. Most vessel segments managed to stay afloat in positive territory, though only by leaning on marginal week-on-week improvements. Capesizes were the sole exception, slipping 2.66%, while Kamsarmaxes edged up 3.47%, Ultramaxes posted a more convincing 6.75%, and Handysizes added a modest 1.12%.

The Baltic Dry Index rose by just 21 points, closing at 2,125 on Friday, 14 November — a movement that felt more like the market trimming sails than actively accelerating.

Capes started the week under full steam, with the three major miners driving strong fixtures before the energy dissipated mid-week. The market found its footing again toward Friday, managing to keep rates above the symbolic $10/ton threshold. On the key Australia–China C5 route, the week closed at $10.3/ton, a sign that the segment remains under a finely balanced pressure.

Across the Atlantic, activity began cautiously but gradually gathered pace, buoyed by demand on the Brazil–Asia and West Africa–Asia runs. By Friday, C3 (Brazil–China) had settled at $23.51/ton, while transatlantic round voyages hovered around $29,100/day, and Europe-to-Asia (C9) routes reached $44,820/day — a reminder that when the Atlantic awakens, it can shift the winds across the entire Capesize fleet.

For Kamsarmaxes, the North Atlantic displayed mild but steady upward pressure, supported by firmer demand and a stable vessel supply. The South Atlantic fared similarly, though slight easing appeared at week’s end. East Coast South America–Far East voyages fixed between $17,000 and $19,000/day, while Europe–Asia sailings settled at $23,000–25,000/day, and transatlantic rounds held at $14,500–16,500/day.

In the Pacific, conditions were livelier. Grain out of the North Pacific and ore from Australia injected fresh momentum, pushing Southeast Asia–Far East rounds to $17,500–19,500/day and giving regional owners a welcome lift.

The Supramax–Ultramax segments showed even more movement, with Southeast Asia emerging as a clear engine thanks to Indonesia’s robust coal demand. Ultramaxes fixed between $15,500 and $17,000/day on regional runs, while in the Far East, consistent cargo flows to both the West and the NOPAC routes kept ships moving at $15,500–17,000/day. Voyages to India hovered in the same range, and backhaul trips toward the Atlantic found footing between $14,500 and $16,000/day.

In the Middle East Gulf and West Coast India, activity stayed vibrant, supported by additional opportunities out of Latin America and South Africa. Far East sailings fixed at $13,500–15,000/day, short-haul inter-regional trips at $14,500–16,000/day, and westbound voyages toward the Atlantic at $12,500–14,000/day.

The U.S. Gulf saw one of the strongest performances of the week, driven by tight tonnage and firm demand for Asia-bound cargoes. Rates climbed to $31,000–32,500/day for transatlantic voyages and $28,000–29,500/day for sailings to Asia. East Coast South America followed suit, with a surge of fresh stems soaking up available capacity. That push lifted rates to $31,500–33,000/day for trips to Southeast Asia and China, and $29,500–31,000/day for sailings toward Europe and the Mediterranean.

Europe kept a more stoic posture. Owners and charterers held their ground through most of the week, leaving the market largely unchanged until Friday, when sentiment finally tipped in owners’ favor. Local round voyages closed around $19,000–20,500/day, scrap movements to the Mediterranean at $23,500–25,000/day, and long-haul Asia voyages between $22,500 and $24,000/day. The Mediterranean itself maintained a delicate balance, with rates for local employment at $13,000–14,500/day, Asia-bound trips above $19,000/day, and westbound voyages toward the Atlantic averaging $12,000–13,500/day.

Handysize activity in Europe began with a handful of fresh opportunities, but rising tonnage availability quickly dampened the upward drift. By week’s end, many negotiations stalled, leading to a slight softening. Round voyages settled near $16,000–17,500/day, scrap to the Mediterranean at $19,000–20,500/day, and transatlantic runs at $12,000–13,500/day.

The Mediterranean remained under pressure, with limited options for owners and a concentration of open ships. Larger Handys (36K+ DWT) fixed between $12,000 and $13,500/day for intra-Med and Med–Europe runs, slightly lower for Med–Atlantic voyages, and $15,500–17,000/day for sailings toward Asia.

Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Gulf once again delivered a strong performance, with rates rising to $20,000–21,500/day for transatlantic voyages and $18,500–20,000/day for fixtures into Asia. The ECSA market improved dramatically after a quiet start, buoyed by a wave of new demand. Voyages toward Europe and the Mediterranean closed at $19,000–20,500/day, while Asia-bound trips settled at $18,500–20,000/day.

In the Pacific, however, the mood shifted downward. Cargo availability proved insufficient to absorb the open tonnage in both the northern and southern sectors of the basin. The Middle East Gulf and India were equally subdued, with only sporadic fixing. Far East and NOPAC rounds for larger Handys hovered between $9,500 and $11,000/day, Southeast Asia–China runs at $13,000–14,500/day, and West Coast India–China voyages struggling at $7,500–9,000/day.

As the week closes, the dry bulk market feels caught between steady footing and restrained potential — a fleet holding course, engines idling, waiting for the gust that will carry it into a more decisive uptrend. When conditions are this finely balanced, the stakeholders who navigate with foresight, grounded intelligence, and targeted strategy are the ones who ultimately catch the next wind first.

And in shipping, as every seasoned professional knows, the one who hoists the sails ahead of the pack is the one who reaches the horizon before the rest.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.