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Riding the North-Atlantic Swell: Handy & Ultramax Markets Shift Into Higher Gear

By

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis,

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive

 &

Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

Handysize Sector Overview

US Gulf / US East Coast

The Gulf found its sea legs again this week, shaking off recent torpor as a surge of grains, minerals and minor bulks swept through the board. Prompt ships were snapped up fast, leaving owners with a renewed sense of kratos—a quiet but unmistakable authority—as the tonnage list tightened. Charterers spent the week trimming their sails rather than setting the course, especially on shorter regional hops where competition for capable vessels has become almost gladiatorial.

Outlook:
Barring an unexpected lull, owners should continue to hold the helm next week, buoyed by steady forward enquiry.

East Coast South America

What began as a muted opening soon morphed into a steady climb in confidence. Northern ports sparked first, with fixtures resurfacing and charterers recalibrating their expectations almost overnight. The south followed suit, with owners advancing firmer ideas long before the deals were inked. Limited supply—some ballasting in from the Med—lent further momentum to a market already on the rise.

Outlook:
Still on a firm footing, supported by healthy demand and a vessel count that remains tight enough to sustain the current rhythm.

West Coast South America

Handy sentiment in the WCSA improved, but the lift remains measured. The real driver is the widening gap between Handy and Ultramax earnings rather than a dramatic surge in local cargo volume. Despite an encouraging tone, the region is far from overheated.

Outlook:
A modestly positive drift is likely, though any breakout depends on external cargo pulses.

Northern Europe

The Continent began the week with a whisper of optimism, but the mood softened as more spot vessels appeared on the radar. Charterers sensed the shift early and began nudging the market lower, forcing owners to be more malleable to keep their ships employed.

Outlook:
A softer undercurrent prevails unless stronger inquiry materialises.

Mediterranean

The Med wrestled with an influx of prompt ships and fewer cargoes to match them. Although scattered parcels provided momentary support, the overall picture remained fragile. Many vessels ended up circling for opportunities that simply were not there.

Outlook:
Still delicate. A meaningful rebound will require a clearer wave of fresh stems.

Middle East Gulf / India

Activity here barely deviated from its usual course—neither sinking nor soaring. A handful of nomination-driven premiums hinted at latent potential, but fundamentals remain largely unchanged.

Outlook:
Expect side-to-side movement, not a decisive heading.

Southeast Asia / Far East

The Pacific Handy market drifted lower as spot tonnage continued to stack up like ships awaiting pilotage outside a busy anchorage. The steel trade, once a stabilising force, lost momentum, allowing charterers to press their advantage. Backhaul and southbound legs bore the brunt, with owners increasingly accepting pragmatic terms to stay seaborne.

Outlook:
Unless new demand breaks through the haze, the region remains vulnerable to further softening.

Ultramax Sector Overview

US Gulf / US East Coast

Ultras in the Gulf pushed ahead with purpose. Tight supply, energetic fronthaul demand and a robust grains programme combined to give owners a commanding position. The USEC was calmer but still carried enough momentum to keep owners optimistic.

Outlook:
Next week looks set for more firmness, with the Gulf continuing as one of the global market’s most animated stages.

West Coast South America

Ultramax sentiment strengthened on the back of growing mineral demand and an echo of support from the US Gulf. Seasonal shifts added extra ballast to owners’ confidence.

Outlook:
Rates should maintain course, supported by a reasonable balance between vessels and cargo.

East Coast South America

ECSA was the star performer—brimming with fronthaul, regional and TA interest. Ballasters were scarce, and cargoes plentiful, giving owners the sort of leverage that is felt, not shouted. Both North Brazil and southern ports delivered the kind of enquiry that keeps lists thin and negotiations brisk.

Outlook:
Provided the grain conveyor keeps rolling and ballasters remain light, bullish energy should persist.

Northern Europe

A balanced and constructive week for Ultras. Initial caution soon gave way to firmer footing as fertilisers, scrap and short-sea parcels kept the region ticking along. Supply never ballooned, allowing owners to nudge ideas upward.

Outlook:
Slight strengthening expected, though dependent on fresh arrivals staying manageable.

Mediterranean

Steels and clinker shipments offered intermittent lift, helping owners resist the gravitational pull seen on Handies. Supply remained disciplined enough to prevent a slide.

Outlook:
Steady to modestly positive unless a sudden flood of spot tonnage hits the circuit.

South Africa

South Africa saw an energetic export window, bolstered by a bullish FFA curve. The basin has become an attractive alternative for tonnage otherwise bound for India or the Gulf, drawing in ships repositioning from the Pacific and beyond.

Outlook:
The upbeat tone should hold in the near term.

Middle East Gulf / India

Though overshadowed by stronger theatres like ECSA and South Africa, the region’s balance between cargo and ships remained acceptable. Healthy but not electrifying.

Outlook:
Stable with a possible upward nudge if external basins continue pulling tonnage westward.

Southeast Asia / Far East

Ultras enjoyed a firmer week across the Pacific. Indonesian coal remained the anchor of activity, while regional weather patterns tightened supply. Backhaul demand eased, but not enough to undermine the broader sense of balance. Owners held firmer lines, especially for medium to longer voyages.

Outlook:
A mildly positive course ahead, assuming Indonesian flows stay constant and weather disruptions remain manageable.

FFA Outlook: A Market Finding Its Pulse

Forward markets in the dry bulk universe showed renewed vitality. Capes mounted a spirited comeback mid-week, shedding early lethargy as physical fixtures sharpened. Panamaxes powered ahead with only a minor correction interrupting an otherwise bullish sprint. Supras spent most of the week comfortably in the green, with bursts of volatility offering opportunities rather than threats.

The broader curve signals resilience heading into next week, though winter weather patterns and shifting Atlantic-Pacific balances will almost certainly keep the landscape dynamic.

One-Week Market Forecast

Handysize: Atlantic regions continue to lead, while Pacific handies feel the weight of oversupply.

Ultramax: A strong Atlantic and an improving Pacific maintain the upper hand; MEG/India steady but overshadowed by busier basins.

Overall: Owners hold the advantage west of Suez, while eastward markets remain split between firm Ultras and softer Handies.

Sentiment Snapshot

Owners: Quietly confident—more so in the Atlantic.

Charterers: Defensive in the Americas, assertive in the Pacific Handy arena.

Market Psychology: Tilting toward owners in the West, while the East wrestles with tonnage-heavy conditions.

Legal Disclaimer:

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.