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Ultramax & Handy outlook: Holding course, eyes on the horizon

By:
Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive
Commercial Director, TMC Shipping

Setting the Scene: A Market in Cautious Balance

The dry bulk market, particularly in the Handysize and Ultramax segments, enters mid-October holding a fragile equilibrium. While some regions exhibit firmness, others are clearly under pressure, as post-Golden Week volatility and uneven cargo flows continue to shape sentiment.

The market narrative remains far from uniform. Tonnage availability, regional demand variations, and seasonal cargo programs — notably in grains, fertilizers, and minerals — are pulling rates in competing directions. In this week’s review, we explore how each area is responding and where market players should turn their focus in the weeks ahead.

Handysize: Steady Ground with Localized Pressure

US Gulf & US East Coast (USG/USEC)
The Handysize sector in the US Gulf started slowly but found momentum midweek, aided by fresh grain and petcoke demand. Owners regained footing, with sentiment stabilizing and short-period interest on the rise. On the USEC, improved inquiry and a tighter tonnage list offered a slightly firmer tone.

Outlook: The mood is cautiously optimistic. If new cargoes continue to emerge, owners may retain control. Otherwise, the week ahead could turn flat.

East Coast South America (ECSA)
ECSA's Handysize market remains well-balanced. Northern Brazil saw steady demand, while southern transatlantic trades held their ground. The influx of ballasters from the West Med and North Continent helped cap any upward momentum.

Outlook: Rates are likely to stay rangebound. With charterers still holding sway, meaningful gains remain unlikely without a spike in fresh demand.

West Coast South America (WCSA)
The WCSA slowed further, reflecting a thinner October cargo slate. Charterers continue to rely on time charters, and spot fixtures have softened slightly.

Outlook: A soft week is expected unless additional salt or grains are pushed into the market.

Northern Europe (Continent)
The Continent held steady early in the week, supported by scrap flows, but faded slightly by Friday as October programs tapered. Supply remained manageable, and most owners held their ground despite reduced inquiry.

Outlook: Rates may soften unless new scrap or fertilizer stems materialize.

Mediterranean
Inter-Med trades, steel to West Africa, and grain flows kept the Med active. A reduction in prompt tonnage — due to vessels repositioning north — helped support rates in the East and Central Med.

Outlook: A stable week ahead, though a cooling in the Continent could ripple into Med sentiment.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)
Oversupply continues to weigh heavily. Eco Handies are fixing below $10,000 on Persian Gulf runs, and demand remains too thin to absorb available tonnage.

Outlook: Owners will likely continue conceding ground until mid-October when new cargoes may rebalance the region.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)
Golden Week paused much of the region’s activity, but late-week demand for Indonesian coal and Australian grains offered a modest lift, especially for larger Handies.

Outlook: A gradual recovery is expected as Chinese charterers return, particularly for logger and clean tonnage.

Ultramax: Mixed Momentum Across Global Hubs

US Gulf & US East Coast (USG/USEC)
Ultramax rates came under pressure as fronthaul and transatlantic business thinned. Owners fixed in the high $20,000s to secure cover, though the tonnage list remained relatively short — hinting at possible recovery.

Outlook: Early softness expected, but any pickup in grain or petcoke could trigger a bounce.

East Coast South America (ECSA)
Rates drifted lower amid waning inquiry. Fronthaul trips to the Far East were assessed at $15,000 + $500,000 ballast bonus, with transatlantic runs near $24,000/day. Still, tight tonnage supply kept the floor intact.

Outlook: Sideways movement expected unless mid-month cargo flow improves.

West Coast South America (WCSA)
Reduced NOPAC and regional demand kept pressure on owners. Transpacific trades and coastal routes remained subdued.

Outlook: Soft conditions will likely persist, although a few grain or salt shipments could offer short-term support.

Northern Europe (Continent)
The Continent was one of the week’s stronger spots, buoyed by fertilizer and scrap demand. Fronthaul trips to India and the Med paid in the high $20,000s, with shorter scrap runs crossing $30,000/day for well-positioned ships.

Outlook: Still firm, but owners may face pushback if activity slows.

Mediterranean
Stability defined the Med Ultramax market. Clinker and steel parcels provided core support, especially from the western basin. Tonnage levels remained controlled, though softening sentiment from the Continent looms.

Outlook: Neutral. The current balance could shift if Continent demand wanes.

South Africa
Rates out of South Africa held firm, supported by coal and mineral cargoes to India and the Far East. Supras trading to WCI earned around $20,000 + $200,000 ballast bonus.

Outlook: Constructive tone likely to continue into mid-month, given limited available tonnage.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)
A surplus of ships continues to plague the region. Longer-haul AG–Far East runs hovered at $13,000–14,000/day, with short-haul trips the only bright spot.

Outlook: Without fresh demand, rates are set to remain under pressure.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)
Post-Golden Week, activity started to recover. Indonesian coal provided the main push, with Pacific rounds fixing near $15,000/day. Australian grains added depth to the market.

Outlook: Gradual improvement expected as more charterers return to the market. Modest rate gains are possible.

FFA Market Sentiment & Projections

Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) for Q4 2025 have softened slightly in recent sessions, reflecting a cautious approach post-holidays. The Handysize 38k T/C average stands near $13,500–14,000, while Supramax 58k averages hover around $15,000–15,500.

The Pacific is expected to regain footing mid-October as logistical flows normalize. However, the Atlantic faces a more complex outlook, challenged by inconsistent demand and a growing number of ballaste

Final Outlook: Navigating a Neutral-to-Soft Market

While the dry bulk market avoids any sharp downturns, it also lacks the catalysts for a firm rally — at least for now. For both Handy and Ultramax sectors, regional dynamics remain the key driver. From the coal hubs of Indonesia to the scrap yards of Northern Europe, owners and charterers alike are treading cautiously.

Short-term resilience is expected in select regions, but broader improvements will require synchronized demand recovery — particularly from the Atlantic basin

Disclaimer

This report is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, commercial recommendation, or solicitation. The views expressed are based on data and market observations considered reliable at the time of writing, but no warranty is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Any decisions based on this content are at the sole discretion and risk of the reader.