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The relationship between spot market performance and asset values is a core theme in dry bulk shipping

The relationship between spot market performance and asset values is a core theme in dry bulk shipping. By examining average monthly data from August 2015 to May 2025, including the Baltic S10TC and the price of a 15-year-old Supramax, clear patterns emerge—alongside some striking shifts that redefine how the market values ships in today’s environment.

A statistical analysis shows a robust positive correlation (0.65) between the Baltic S10TC and the price of a 15-year-old Supramax. This means that, as expected, firmer spot market earnings usually translate into higher asset prices. However, the relationship is far from linear: the far from perfect positive correlation shows that ship values are shaped not just by immediate earnings, but also by sentiment, forward expectations, and wider shipping and macroeconomic developments.

A year-by-year review of average rates and asset prices for the first five months of each year reveals close alignment. During the downturn of 2016, both spot rates and asset values plummeted to historic lows, with 15-year-old Supramaxes valued below $4 million. The subsequent rebound in 2017–2018 saw both spot rates and prices nearly triple, underscoring the asset market’s responsiveness to earnings. This tight link persisted during the 2021–2022 supercycle, when the combination of COVID-driven stimulus, global supply chain upheaval, and commodity surges propelled the S10TC over $30,000/day and vintage Supramax prices as high as $17–18 million. Notably, even as spot rates moderated in the following years, reaching just above $7,000/day in the first months of 2025, asset values have remained resilient—suggesting a new floor, underpinned by broader structural factors.

Perhaps the most compelling finding is the divergence in asset pricing at similar spot market levels across different years. In previous cycles, a Japanese 15-year-old Supramax trading at a $10,000/day S10TC would fetch $8.5–9.5 million (2018–2019 levels). In 2025, however, the same earnings environment supports prices well above $15 million—a 60% increase. This premium extends across most market levels: in 2016, when S10TC was languishing near $5,000/day, vintage Supras sold for $5.5 million; by 2020, even during brief rate dips, values rarely slipped below $7 million.

Several factors can explain this: rising newbuilding costs due to inflation and steel prices, persistent supply discipline and lack of ordering, and regulatory uncertainty boosting the value of existing tonnage. Owners and buyers increasingly look beyond current earnings, focusing on replacement value and longer-term market tightness.

The last decade has witnessed not only cyclical swings in spot rates and asset prices, but also a fundamental repricing of vintage dry bulk assets. Today’s market is shaped by inflation, regulatory uncertainty, and a scarcity of new tonnage, which together have driven asset values higher at any given earnings level. Owners who bought in prior downturns have been handsomely rewarded, while new entrants face a landscape where market optimism—and replacement cost logic—support historically high vessel valuations. As always, however, risk remains: should sentiment or rates reverse, asset prices could readjust, as history has shown. For now, the “new normal” in dry bulk values reflects both the realities of the present and expectations for a structurally tighter future.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

In the dry bulk market this week, the Kamsarmax/Panamax sector showed significant activity, accounting for half of all sales. German buyers acquired the Kamsarmax “Kazahaya” - 82K/2017 Tsuneishi Cebu for USD 27.5 mills. On the same sector, the “CL Tiffany” - 82K/2013 Yangfan, the “CL Mona” - 82K/2013 Yangfan and the “CL Grace”- 82K/2012 Yangfan were sold for USD 45 mills enbloc to Chinese buyers. Moreover, Chinese buyers acquired also the Kamsarmax “Key Action” - 82K/2010 Tsuneishi Zhoushan for region/excess USD 15 mills. The Panamax “Jawor”- 80K/2010 New Century was sold for region USD 11 mills to European buyers basis surveys due. On the Ultramax sector the “Nord Mississippi”- 60K/2015 Mitsui was sold for USD 22 mills to Greek buyers. Chinese buyers acquired the Supramax “NZ Hangzhou” - 57K/2012 Qingshan for USD 12 mills, while on the same sector, the “Ivy Alliance”- 56K/2011 IHI Marine United changed hands to Vietnamese for USD 15.6 mills. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the “Vega Dablam” - 35K/2011 Zhejiang Yueqing found new owners for USD 8.5 mills.

Wet:

On the VLCC sector, Chinese buyers acquired the VLCC “M. Star” - 314K/2008 Kawasaki for USD 47 mills. On the MR2 sector, the Zinc Coated “World Navigator” - 47K/2010 HMD was sold to Greek buyers for USD 17 mills basis surveys due. Chinese buyers acquired the Ice Class 1A MR1 “Pelagic Tarpon” - 45K/2006 STX for USD 14 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.