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Global Market Pulse for Ultramaxes & Handies : A Tale of Two Markets as Atlantic Strength Meets Asian Caution

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

Week Ending 10 July 2026

The Handy and Ultramax markets closed the week with a more differentiated picture emerging across the various trading regions. While some areas continued to benefit from firm vessel availability and resilient cargo demand, others showed early signs of adjustment as Charterers became increasingly selective and Owners began reassessing expectations following recent strength.

The Atlantic markets generally remained the more supportive side of the global picture, with the US Gulf continuing to demonstrate impressive resilience, supported by healthy grain demand and limited prompt tonnage. Conversely, parts of Asia showed signs of moderation, with increasing competition for employment and a gradual shift in negotiating power back towards Charterers.

Overall, the market remains fundamentally healthy, but the broad-based optimism seen in certain segments has started to become more selective. Going forward, the balance between fresh cargo availability and prompt vessel supply will remain the key driver of freight direction, while regional positioning decisions and geopolitical developments will continue to play an important role.

South Atlantic Ultramax: Quiet Confidence Builds as Tight Tonnage Supports the Market

The South Atlantic Ultramax market moved towards the end of the week with sentiment remaining broadly stable, although trading activity remained measured. Fronthaul employment continued to provide the main source of demand, while transatlantic business proved somewhat more active than initially anticipated at the beginning of the week, adding a degree of support to the market.

Despite relatively limited fixing activity, vessel availability remained relatively tight, allowing the overall balance between supply and demand to remain constructive. The market has not yet entered a phase of accelerating activity, but there is increasing confidence among some Owners that momentum could improve over the coming weeks should cargo availability begin to strengthen.

Current fundamentals continue to provide a reasonable level of support, particularly due to the limited number of prompt vessels available. However, a more sustained increase in enquiry will be required before this underlying firmness translates into a meaningful improvement in freight levels.

South Atlantic – Handy: Balanced Fundamentals Await the Next Wave of Cargo Demand

The South Atlantic Handy market experienced another quiet week, with limited fresh enquiry and little change in the broader supply-demand equation. Expectations for a stronger flow of second-half July cargoes did not materialise, resulting in activity remaining subdued and freight levels largely unchanged compared with the previous week.

Vessel supply increased only marginally, as several vessels that could have potentially ballasted into the region instead secured local employment, limiting additional tonnage inflow. At the same time, prompt cargo requirements continued to face relatively limited replacement options.

A considerable amount of business was covered through internal arrangements or sub-sale activity, reducing the number of visible fixtures in the open market and contributing to the perception of limited liquidity.

Towards the end of the week, the first early-August cargoes began to emerge, providing the market with its next area of attention. Overall fundamentals remain balanced, although the absence of a clear catalyst and limited enquiry flow have left the market closing the week broadly unchanged, awaiting stronger demand signals to establish the next direction.

US Gulf Ultramax: Strong Momentum Meets a Period of Consolidation Rather Than Correction

The US Gulf Ultramax market delivered another exceptionally strong performance during the week, although the rapid acceleration in freight levels witnessed recently appears to be approaching a more mature phase. Vessel availability has improved slightly towards the end of July, providing Charterers with additional options and reducing some of the immediate pressure that characterised the earlier part of the rally.

This development should not be interpreted as a fundamental weakening of the market. Grain transatlantic and fronthaul demand remain firmly supported, with no immediate indication that rates will retreat back towards the USD 20,000/day range. Instead, current expectations point towards a period of consolidation around the very low USD 30,000/day levels.

Certain specialised trades continue to command substantial premiums, with petcoke shipments into India remaining particularly strong and positioned towards the upper end of the USD 30,000/day range.

Cargo demand remains healthy across the principal trading routes, while forward requirements—especially soybean movements into China—continue to provide a constructive outlook. Accordingly, while the pace of recent gains may moderate, the underlying fundamentals remain supportive and should continue to provide stability to the market in the foreseeable future.

US Gulf Handy: Recovery After Holiday Disruption Keeps the Market Firm and Balanced

Following the significant slowdown caused by the US Independence Day holiday, which resulted in a notably quieter previous week, activity recovered in line with expectations. The market returned with improved participation across transatlantic, inter-Gulf and regional employment, while additional tonnage became available for consideration.

Transatlantic fixtures continue to be concluded around USD 20,000/day and slightly above, whereas inter-Gulf employment has adjusted lower into the high USD 10,000/day range. Despite this adjustment, the overall tone remains healthy, with many Owners preferring to maintain their position in the region rather than ballast away, anticipating that future opportunities may justify waiting.

Looking ahead, July is expected to remain relatively balanced, with neither supply nor demand currently suggesting a major shift in direction. Over the coming two to three weeks, the market is likely to maintain a stable footing, although the next significant move will depend largely on whether fresh cargo volumes develop sufficiently to absorb available tonnage.

West Coast South America Ultramax: Tight Prompt Supply Supports Rates Despite Mixed Demand Signals

The West Coast South America Ultramax market continued to benefit from limited vessel availability for second-half July positions, supporting freight levels and maintaining a firm tone in the fronthaul sector. A shortage of prompt tonnage, combined with repositioning pressure from the East Coast South America, created a temporary squeeze for late July requirements.

However, the underlying demand picture remains mixed. Ultramax fronthaul enquiry has remained relatively limited, while salt cargoes have largely been covered by existing Contract of Affreightment holders at levels in the mid-USD 10,000/day range. Furthermore, the Pacific grain market has not provided meaningful additional support for second-half July positions.

As a result, current firmness appears to be driven more by vessel positioning than by a broad improvement in demand fundamentals. Some correction in freight levels may therefore emerge in the short term, particularly from West Coast Central America. Nevertheless, improved cargo availability during the first half of August could provide renewed support.

West Coast South America Handy: Market Finds Its Footing After a Realistic Rate Reset

The West Coast South America Handy market followed the expected pattern this week, with prompt tonnage clearing relatively quickly, although at lower-than-average levels. Several Owners who maintained more ambitious expectations found that Charterer interest did not fully support their ideas, resulting in a gradual adjustment of rate expectations.

The market is expected to find greater stability during the remainder of the second half of July across both directions. Some Charterers, concerned that rates could strengthen later in the month, have already moved proactively to secure forward tonnage, providing some underlying support to near-term demand.

Continent Ultramax: Quiet Beginnings Give Way to Renewed Owner Confidence

The Continent Ultramax market began the week with a relatively cautious tone, as activity remained limited; however, sufficient fresh enquiry was available to prevent any deterioration in sentiment. As the week progressed, trading activity gradually improved, with a number of fixtures concluded and bid-offer levels moving closer together as both Owners and Charterers adjusted their expectations.

Fresh Baltic enquiry provided additional support to the market, while vessel availability remained broadly unchanged, maintaining a favourable balance between supply and demand. Although activity levels were not particularly aggressive, the underlying fundamentals continued to improve as the week developed.

By the close of the week, sentiment had shifted towards a more positive direction, with the market demonstrating a firmer undertone. Owners appear increasingly confident that current levels can be maintained in the near term, provided enquiry remains consistent and prompt tonnage does not increase materially.

Continent Handy: Supply Pressure Remains the Main Challenge as Cargo Flow Lags

The Continent Handy market experienced a quieter week, with limited fresh demand failing to generate sufficient momentum for a meaningful improvement in market conditions. While occasional enquiry helped maintain a degree of activity, the overall volume of cargo was insufficient to absorb the available tonnage.

As the week progressed, the imbalance between vessel supply and cargo availability became increasingly evident, leading to a gradual softening in market sentiment. Owners have remained competitive in securing employment, while Charterers continue to benefit from a wider choice of available tonnage.

Looking ahead, the market will require a more consistent flow of fresh stems to restore a healthier balance and provide renewed support to freight levels. Until then, conditions are expected to remain subdued, with Charterers maintaining the advantage in negotiations.

Mediterranean & Black Sea Ultramax: Tightening Tonnage Creates a More Constructive Outlook

The Mediterranean and Black Sea Ultramax market developed a noticeably firmer tone as the week progressed, supported by continued tightening in vessel availability. Although demand from the Western Mediterranean remained under pressure, the reduction in prompt tonnage has created a more supportive environment for Owners.

Fresh enquiry continued to emerge across the region, and with available vessels now at one of the lowest levels seen for some time, market sentiment has strengthened considerably. The current balance between supply and demand has encouraged Owners to maintain a more confident approach, particularly for remaining July positions.

Despite some regional variations, the overall outlook for the remainder of July remains positive. Provided demand remains steady and additional prompt tonnage does not enter the market, current freight levels should remain well supported.

Mediterranean & Black Sea Handy: Diverging Paths Between Black Sea Strength and Western Mediterranean Pressure

The Handy market across the Mediterranean presented a more complex picture during the week, with notable differences between the Black Sea/East Mediterranean and Western Mediterranean sectors.

The Black Sea and East Mediterranean markets showed signs of improvement, supported by stronger demand for mid and second-half July positions. Increased enquiry and a tighter vessel position list have provided Owners with greater confidence heading into the coming week.

In contrast, the Western Mediterranean remained under pressure, with insufficient loading opportunities forcing several Owners to consider ballast voyages towards Brazil. These repositioning decisions were not necessarily driven by expectations of a stronger market in Brazil, but rather by the limited availability of suitable employment within the region.

The few fixtures concluded in the Western Mediterranean were generally achieved at levels USD 2,000–3,000/day below previous comparable fixtures, reflecting the willingness of Owners to adjust expectations in order to secure employment and avoid prolonged idle time.

Overall sentiment from the Black Sea remains constructive, and the improved demand environment is expected to support the market in the short term. However, the significant clearance of available tonnage could also contribute to greater stability rather than further substantial improvement.

Middle East & Indian Ocean & south Africa Ultramax: Geopolitical Risk Shapes Trading Decisions as Fundamentals Hold

The Middle East Gulf and Indian Ocean Ultramax markets continue to be shaped by geopolitical developments, making short-term forecasting particularly challenging. Recent regional tensions have introduced renewed uncertainty, with market participants adopting a more cautious and measured approach.

The willingness of Owners to transit the Strait of Hormuz has again been affected, disrupting the normal flow of vessels into and out of the Gulf. Charterers continue to face difficulties securing suitable tonnage for Middle East Gulf loadings, as only a limited number of vessels are currently prepared to undertake such employment without requiring significantly higher war risk premiums.

Operational challenges remain a key consideration, particularly congestion at ports east of Hormuz, which continues to affect vessel schedules and cargo execution. At the same time, salt exports from the West Coast of India remain limited, while the strengthening monsoon season across the Indian coastline continues to create delays through reduced port productivity and weather-related interruptions.

The traditional Oman–India limestone and gypsum trades remain active, providing employment opportunities, with Supramaxes reportedly achieving levels in the high USD 10,000/day range.

The West Coast India market has demonstrated resilience despite the broader uncertainty. In the spot market, Ultramaxes have been fixed in the high USD 13,000/day range for trips towards the US Gulf, while West Coast India/Oman to East Africa voyages have concluded around the mid-USD 15,000/day range on a DOP basis for Supramaxes.

Overall sentiment remains balanced, although Owners continue to monitor developments in the Arabian Gulf closely. In the period market, Ultramaxes have been achieving levels in the USD 20,000/day range for short-period employment.

The East Coast India market has remained comparatively firm, particularly within the domestic trading segment. Steady regional demand continues to absorb available tonnage, keeping prompt vessel supply relatively controlled despite limited fresh export enquiry.

Coastal employment for Ultramax vessels trading within East Coast India has been reported in the low to mid USD 20,000/day range, while East Coast India to West Coast India voyages have been concluded in the low USD 20,000/day range. Traditional East Coast India to China voyages for Ultramaxes have been reported in the mid-USD 10,000/day range on APS or DOP nearby basis.

However, the developing supply picture requires close monitoring. The tonnage list has started to build, particularly across the Supramax and Ultramax segments, with a growing number of prompt vessels becoming available in East Coast India.

While domestic cargo demand continues to provide a degree of support, any further increase in open tonnage without corresponding growth in cargo volumes could create downward pressure on freight levels in the coming weeks.

The South African market softened slightly during the week following a period of relative stability. Demand has become thinner, with some Owners beginning to revise their rate expectations. Activity has primarily been driven by coal shipments into Pakistan and West Coast India, while manganese ore and iron ore enquiry towards the Far East has remained limited, reducing overall market momentum.

The end-July tonnage list has continued to expand and now appears sufficient to cover current demand requirements. Freight levels have started to ease, although a gap remains between Owner expectations and Charterer ideas. Unless additional late-July cargoes emerge, increasing vessel availability is likely to place further pressure on Owner rate expectations.

The market remains active overall; however, eastbound sentiment is beginning to soften following the recent improvement in freight levels. The premium continues to be achieved for Pakistan and West Coast India destinations, where demand remains relatively healthy. Conversely, China-bound employment is facing increasing competition as more vessels become available.

Additional competition may also develop from West Coast India, where Owners could consider positioning vessels towards South Africa on DOP-based employment, increasing the available tonnage pool for eastbound cargoes. While the fundamental picture remains broadly supportive, growing availability may limit further upside in the near term. Pakistan and West Coast India trades are expected to maintain their premium, supported by more consistent demand.

Middle East Gulf / Indian Ocean / South Africa – Handy: Risk Premiums Remain While Owners Balance Caution with Opportunity

The Handy market across the Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean and South Africa remained relatively calm during the week, broadly following the pattern observed in the larger segments. Activity levels were steady rather than aggressive, with the market continuing to be influenced by both geopolitical uncertainty and seasonal operational challenges.

Backhaul employment continues to command a reasonable premium compared with shorter voyages, with some Owners showing limited appetite for longer-duration commitments as they maintain expectations for a potentially stronger autumn and winter market. This cautious approach reflects a desire among Owners to preserve flexibility and avoid committing tonnage too early should market conditions improve later in the year.

The market continues to receive support from the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Arabian Gulf. Recent security incidents involving commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz have once again highlighted operational risks and increased the importance of risk assessment when considering Gulf-related employment.

Nevertheless, there are signs that a greater number of Owners are becoming more comfortable with transiting the region, with additional vessels showing interest in Gulf loadings or inbound voyages from outside the area. This gradual return of tonnage has helped ease some of the earlier supply concerns, although Owners continue to require appropriate compensation through increased risk premiums.

Any further escalation of regional tensions could quickly reverse this trend and once again tighten prompt vessel availability, particularly for Gulf-related employment.

At the same time, the Indian monsoon continues to affect operations across the subcontinent, with heavy rainfall creating delays at several ports. Reduced loading and discharge productivity, combined with weather-related interruptions, are expected to prolong port stays and may contribute to additional congestion during the coming weeks.

Far East / Southeast Asia – Ultramax : Momentum Slows as Owners Compete Harder for Repositioning Cargoes

The Far East Ultramax market showed clearer signs of moderation during the week, particularly across backhaul routes, as Owners became increasingly competitive in their efforts to secure repositioning employment. While activity remains present, the balance has gradually shifted as available cargo volumes have not increased at the same pace as vessel availability.

In the North, tonnage supply remained relatively balanced; however, a growing number of Owners showed preference for backhaul employment in order to secure positioning opportunities. Ultramaxes were generally indicating levels around USD 14,000–15,000/day for US Gulf directions, with one newly built Ultramax reportedly fixed at USD 15,000/day with split employment into the Gulf.

East Coast South America also attracted steady interest, with Charterers bidding around USD 15,000/day while Owners were seeking closer to USD 16,000/day. The North Pacific market showed a modest improvement in activity, although Charterers continued to maintain a disciplined approach and resisted significant upward movement.

One eco Ultramax opening in North China was reported fixed at USD 19,250/day for a North Pacific/Southeast Asia round voyage, reflecting continued support for selected Pacific opportunities.

The Southern Asian market remained quieter compared with the North, with limited fresh enquiry and most prompt cargo requirements already covered. Australian activity was subdued, with one Ultramax reportedly fixed at USD 16,000/day for an Australian sugar cargo to South Korea.

Indo-Southeast Asia demand remained relatively stable, with Supramaxes fixing around USD 14,000–15,000/day for those directions and approximately USD 16,000/day for Far East employment. India-bound demand, however, appeared to lose some momentum, with one Ultramax opening in South China reportedly fixed at USD 19,000/day for a voyage to Bangladesh.

Overall, the market concluded the week on a softer footing, with the strongest interest concentrated around backhaul opportunities. With cargo availability remaining limited and vessel supply relatively comfortable, Owners continued adjusting expectations in order to secure employment, gradually moving market levels closer towards Charterer preferences.

Far East – Handy: Charterer Discipline Keeps Pressure on Owners’ Expectations.

The Far East Handy market remained soft throughout the week, with activity levels and freight values broadly unchanged from the previous period. Larger Handy Owners continued to seek levels in the high USD 10,000/day range for southbound employment, although Charterers remained selective and continued to counter around the USD 16,000/day range.

Current fair value is assessed around USD 17,000/day, still below the USD 18,000/day levels achieved by larger Handies only a few weeks earlier for southbound voyages.

The market remains characterised by cautious Charterer behaviour and limited urgency, requiring Owners to balance rate expectations carefully against the need to secure forward employment and maintain vessel utilisation.

Middle East Gulf – West Coast India Destinations

Conditions in the Middle East Gulf have become somewhat more stable, with vessels generally able to depart without significant operational disruption. However, cargo volumes into the Middle East Gulf and West Coast India have yet to recover meaningfully, limiting the potential for a stronger market recovery at this stage.

Owners remain cautious regarding Gulf-direction employment, with single-trip levels still being quoted in the high USD 20,000/day range. A more consistent improvement in cargo flow will be necessary before sentiment can shift decisively towards a stronger outlook.

Backhaul Market Destinations

Backhaul markets continued to move largely sideways during the week, with freight levels remaining broadly unchanged compared with recent weeks. Continent and Mediterranean voyages have been assessed around the USD 18,000/day range with split employment, while West Coast Central America and West Coast South America opportunities continue to attract Owner ideas beginning with a “2” handle before meaningful negotiations develop.

Although rates have remained relatively stable, the market continues to lack a clear catalyst for significant improvement. Charterers remain selective, while Owners continue competing for suitable repositioning employment in an environment where cargo availability remains the determining factor.

Southeast Asia & Australia Handy: Early Signs of Market Rebalancing After Recent Strength

The Southeast Asia and Australia Handy market lost some momentum during the week, with sentiment becoming noticeably more cautious and lacking the broad-based conviction seen previously. While Owners entered the week attempting to maintain firm ideas, the limited flow of fresh cargo and shorter-lived Australian requirements gradually encouraged a more realistic assessment of market prospects.

Owners began to soften their expectations for prompt positions, particularly as the need to secure employment before any further weakening became more apparent. This adjustment in approach helped set a more cautious tone across the broader market.

The increase in readily available tonnage across Southeast Asia and the Australian coast should be viewed primarily as a result of vessel positioning rather than a fundamental deterioration in underlying demand. Nevertheless, the additional availability has provided Charterers with greater flexibility and reduced the urgency that supported recent freight improvements.

Although Owners initially attempted to defend higher levels, Charterers remained selective, with resistance to elevated ideas becoming increasingly evident. Indicative Australian round voyage levels for 38,000 DWT vessels opening in Singapore have been discussed in the mid to mid-high USD 10,000/day range, while Australian coastal employment has been indicated around the USD 20,000/day to low USD 20,000/day range for trip employment.

Similarly, larger Handies opening mid-July positions have continued to seek returns around the mid-high to high USD 10,000/day range. However, these levels increasingly appear dependent on specific cargo combinations rather than representing the wider market reality.

Owners have attempted to maintain a firm negotiating position, but the market has struggled to generate sufficient follow-through. Activity has already begun to slow, while underlying fundamentals appear less convincing than recent sentiment suggested.

Short Southeast Asia business continues to underperform Australian and South Pacific trades, with smaller tonnage experiencing the greatest pressure. Employment opportunities remain available, but competition for cargoes is increasing and Charterers are showing limited urgency.

Current fair values for 28,000–32,000 DWT vessels are assessed in the low USD 10,000/day range, with downside risk emerging should additional prompt tonnage enter the region without a corresponding increase in cargo availability.

In the period market, 32,000–34,000 DWT Japanese-built loggers have been fixed in the USD 16,000/day to high USD 16,000/day range for longer-period employment, with Owners adjusting their initial expectations from the USD 17,000/day levels discussed at the beginning of the week.

Similarly, modern 38,000 DWT Japanese-built vessels have continued to seek around USD 18,000/day for short-period or longer-period employment, although Charterer appetite at these levels is beginning to face increasing resistance.

Looking ahead, sentiment for the coming week appears more cautious. Charterers remain selective, and without a renewed increase in cargo demand the market may struggle to sustain current expectations, leaving Owners exposed to renewed pressure on both voyage and period earnings.

Period Market : Spot Strength Contrasts With Growing Charterer Caution

The Atlantic Ultramax period market has adopted a more cautious tone over the past week, with Charterers increasingly favouring short-period employment rather than committing to one-year fixtures.

This shift is largely driven by the significant difference between current physical market performance and the weaker Q1 paper market, which has encouraged Charterers to remain flexible and avoid longer-term commitments at elevated levels.

Despite this more conservative approach within the period sector, both Atlantic spot markets and short-period rates have continued to strengthen week on week, highlighting the current divergence between immediate physical fundamentals and longer-term market expectations.

The Atlantic Handy period market has followed a similar trajectory, softening broadly in line with recent spot market developments. The bid-offer spread for one-year employment has widened, again largely reflecting weaker Q1 paper market levels and increased Charterer caution when considering longer commitments.

Looking Ahead: Regional Selectivity Will Define the Next Phase of the Market

The Handy and Ultramax markets enter the coming week with a more balanced and selective outlook. While several regions continue to benefit from supportive vessel availability or resilient cargo demand, the broad-based momentum experienced in certain markets earlier in the quarter has begun to moderate.

The strongest fundamentals remain concentrated in areas where vessel supply remains structurally tight or where cargo demand continues to provide consistent support, particularly selected Atlantic trades and specific Middle East and Indian Ocean flows.

By contrast, several Asian markets are showing early signs of adjustment, with increasing vessel availability and more disciplined Charterer behaviour limiting further upside potential. The recent shift does not indicate a significant deterioration in market fundamentals, but rather a gradual return towards more region-specific dynamics after a period of broad optimism.

The key question for the next phase of the market will be whether fresh cargo volumes develop sufficiently to absorb available tonnage. Owners have generally maintained a constructive approach, but recent developments underline the importance of aligning expectations with underlying fundamentals rather than relying solely on recent sentiment.

Overall, the market remains healthy by historical standards, although the balance of negotiating power is becoming increasingly regional and selective. The most successful operators will be those able to maintain commercial flexibility, optimise vessel positioning and identify genuine areas of demand rather than relying on general market strength.

Looking ahead, particular attention should be given to Atlantic grain flows, Asian vessel repositioning patterns, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the evolution of autumn cargo expectations. These factors will determine whether current stability develops into renewed market strength or transitions into a more measured correction.

The coming weeks are therefore expected to reward disciplined commercial decision-making, with market participants who combine operational flexibility with accurate regional assessment best positioned to capture opportunities as they emerge.

Discipline, Positioning and Cargo Visibility Will Separate the Winners

 Legal Disclaimer : This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content remain the sole responsibility of the reader.