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A Week of Mild Corrections Across the Dry Bulk Market

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and

Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

The dry bulk market moved into corrective territory over the past week, with Panamaxes recording the sharpest declines, while the remaining vessel segments showed softer downward adjustments compared to the previous week. More specifically, Capes fell by 4.23%, Kamsarmaxes by 11.83%, Ultramaxes (63) posted a marginal increase of 0.1%, and Handies declined by 0.83%. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lost 160 points week-on-week, closing at 2,991 points on Friday, 23 May.

Starting with the Capesize sector, the Asian market remained supported by the steady presence of miners and operators, which continued to inject cargo activity into the region. During the second half of the week, freight rates on the benchmark Australia–China route (C5) gained nearly USD 1.50 per ton, with the index eventually closing Friday at USD 15.63 per ton.

Across the Atlantic, the market developed at two different speeds. In the North Atlantic, pressure persisted as vessel supply significantly outweighed cargo demand. Conversely, the South Atlantic displayed firmer sentiment, largely due to the reduced number of ballasting vessels entering the region. By Friday, rates on the Brazil–China route (C3) stood at USD 36.24 per ton, while earnings on the Europe–Asia route (C9) closed at USD 72.75K per day and Transatlantic round voyages (C8) at USD 46.47K per day.

Turning to the Kamsarmax segment, the Atlantic market — particularly in the North — lost the positive momentum seen during the previous week. As the days progressed, the growing oversupply of tonnage combined with a limited cargo flow pushed rates lower. Activity in the South Atlantic also remained subdued, with only a handful of fixtures reported and at softer levels than previously recorded. Indicatively, rates from the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Far East were assessed around USD 21–23K per day (delivery Asia), while Europe–Asia business stood at USD 27–29K per day and Transatlantic round voyages at USD 18–20K per day.

In Asia, the week opened on a cautious note. Although cargo flow remained satisfactory, the widening gap between charterers’ bids and owners’ expectations gradually reduced fixture activity. The only meaningful support came from grain cargoes in the North Pacific. Rates for round voyages within Southeast Asia and the Far East were reported at approximately USD 23–25K per day.

Within the Ultramax sector, Southeast Asia remained relatively stable, as most May cargoes had already been covered, though fresh demand from Indonesia and Australia continued to provide some support. Freight levels for voyages between Southeast Asia and the Far East hovered around USD 17.5–19K per day.

Further north, the Far East market posted modest gains, supported by improvements in both North Pacific business and backhaul activity. This strengthened owners’ confidence, allowing them to maintain firmer rate expectations. Rates for North Pacific round voyages (NOPAC) reached USD 18.5–20K per day, voyages to India USD 21.5–23K per day, and Atlantic backhaul trips USD 17.5–19K per day.

In the Middle East Gulf and West Coast India region, the week began quietly amid limited fresh cargo inquiry. Additionally, as most Gulf activity has now concentrated around Oman, significant port congestion and delays have emerged. Freight levels for Far East-bound voyages from West Coast India were assessed at USD 13.5–15K per day.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic market — and particularly the U.S. Gulf — displayed healthy activity levels, with numerous fixtures concluded at satisfactory numbers. Interest remained largely focused on Asia-bound business rather than Transatlantic routes. Ultramax earnings for Transatlantic voyages stood at USD 29.5–31K per day, while Asia-bound runs achieved USD 26–27.5K per day.

The ECSA region managed to retain its momentum despite softer interest for Far East business. Nevertheless, opportunities remained available for larger vessels loading toward month-end. Freight levels for voyages to Southeast Asia and China ranged between USD 30.5–32K per day, while Transatlantic voyages toward the Mediterranean and Europe achieved USD 28–29.5K per day.

Europe opened the week with limited transactional activity and only a few fresh cargoes entering the market. However, as the week progressed, additional cargoes surfaced while the list of prompt vessels gradually tightened. Ultramax rates for local and short round voyages stood at USD 15.5–17K per day, scrap cargoes into the Mediterranean reached USD 21.5–23K per day, while Asia-bound business traded around USD 21–22.5K per day.

The Mediterranean continued to soften under the pressure of excess vessel supply, while most May cargoes had already been covered and June activity remained limited. Indicatively, Ultramaxes fixing from the Mediterranean to Asia achieved USD 19.5–21K per day (delivery Canakkale), Transatlantic business returned USD 8.5–10K per day, and intra-Mediterranean voyages stood at USD 12.5–14K per day, excluding war-risk areas.

In the Handysize market, Europe gradually lost momentum as fresh demand remained scarce and growing tonnage availability weighed on freight levels. Larger Handies earned approximately USD 11.5–13K per day for round voyages, USD 14.5–16K per day for Mediterranean scrap runs, and USD 8–9.5K per day for Transatlantic business.

The Mediterranean remained volatile, with cargo flow insufficient to establish any meaningful market stability. Black Sea activity stayed limited, with only a few general cargo and cement stems offering support. Rates for larger Handies (above 36K DWT) stood at USD 7.5–9K per day for Mediterranean employment, USD 7–8.5K per day toward Europe, USD 6.5–8K per day for Transatlantic voyages, and USD 12–13.5K per day for Asia-bound business, all basis Canakkale delivery.

On the western side of the Atlantic, the U.S. Gulf market advanced positively, with rates improving steadily throughout the week. Although additional tonnage entered the market, demand remained sufficiently robust to sustain the upward trend. Freight levels for larger Handies reached USD 16.5–18K per day for Transatlantic voyages and USD 16–17.5K per day for Asia-bound employment.

The East Coast South America region displayed softer tendencies despite healthy grain flows from Argentina to Morocco. Activity across other routes remained limited, forcing owners to lower their rate expectations. Consequently, larger Handies fixed around USD 20–21.5K per day for Transatlantic voyages toward Europe and the Mediterranean, while Asia-bound business stood at USD 18.5–20K per day.

Finally, in Asia, both northern and southern regions maintained an overall upward trend throughout most of the week, with only minor corrections appearing toward the end. Backhaul business and steel cargoes from the North Pacific acted as the primary drivers behind the stronger sentiment. Further west, the Middle East Gulf and Indian markets moved unevenly. Voyages originating from Oman and the UAE continued to command a premium, while India remained broadly unchanged. Rates for round voyages within the Far East and NOPAC closed at USD 17–18.5K per day, Southeast Asia–China business at USD 16.5–18K per day, and West Coast India–China voyages at USD 10.5–12K per day.

Legal Disclaimer : This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content remain the sole responsibility of the reader.