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Shifting Currents: Ultramax and Handysize Markets Grapple with Volatility Across Atlantic & Pacific Trades

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive

&

TMC Shipping Commercial Director

South Atlantic: Mixed Signals Under Bunker Pressure

Ultramax activity slowed as bunker price volatility and geopolitical tensions weighed on confidence. West Africa remains supportive for Far East voyages, especially for vessels with sufficient bunkers, while East Coast South America sees healthier enquiry flows. Transatlantic cargoes are diverse, avoiding concentration on Egypt, whereas Far East trades are soft, focused on Singapore, Japan, and Chittagong. Owners remain cautious, reluctant to slash rates despite cargo discretion and rising fuel costs.

Handysize sentiment mirrors the larger vessels. Early-week volatility in bunkers complicated rate discovery amid rising supply, though minor improvements were seen in bid–offer activity as the week progressed. East Coast South America Handies track the broader segment, with forward April cargoes entering a market still constrained by bunker availability.

US Gulf: Charterers Hold the Upper Hand

Ultramax rates softened as owners steadily reduced offers and charterers held back. Transatlantic and Far East routes fell through $20,000, trending toward lower levels. Oversupply remains acute: 67 vessels vs 20 cargoes. Limited fixing reflects weak cargo demand rather than vessel shortage, while elevated bunker costs discourage forward business.

US Gulf Handysize mirrors this trajectory. Supply across the Gulf, US East Coast, and North Coast South America outpaces cargoes, inter-Caribbean rates dip back into the teens, and regional trading is preferred due to more stable bunker costs. Forward visibility remains limited, with caution prevailing among both charterers and owners.

West Coast South America: Softening Across Segments

Ultramax rates continue to slide under limited cargo availability and an influx of vessels. Bunker scarcity further restricts time charter activity, with Balboa offering supply only at the cost of deviation. Handysize vessels, slightly more active, maintained last week’s levels but are also facing downward pressure. Bunker constraints continue to dominate operational considerations.

Continent & Mediterranean: Subdued but Firm

In the Continent, Ultramax rates softened slightly as tonnage increased amid scarce demand. Scrap remains limited, yet ample ships prompt downward rate adjustments. Handysize activity was stable, supported by Baltic ice conditions and balanced cargo flow, with Continent-to-US Gulf trips around $13,000 DOP for 37,000 dwt units.

Mediterranean and Black Sea Ultramax markets remain calm under limited spot demand, while Handysize vessels see sporadic activity often driven by positioning rather than underlying demand. Week-on-week, rates edged higher by $2,000–$3,000 for some legs, reflecting bunker costs rather than cargo growth.

Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa: Volatility Persists

Ultramax activity remains highly volatile amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and rising bunker costs. Owners demand substantial war risk premiums for Gulf calls, while Chinese tonnage shows more resilience. West Coast India sees vessels diverting toward South Africa or local coastal trades; salt exports to China remain subdued, iron ore flows limited. East Coast India favors coastal business: Supramax around $16,000, Ultramax $18,000–$19,000, with some ballasting toward Singapore.

Handysize mirrors larger vessels, though supply-demand balance in India is more stable. Thin cargo flows, caution among owners, and regional uncertainty dominate, keeping the market direction-sensitive to upcoming geopolitical developments.

Far East & Southeast Asia: Caution Amid Tonnage Build-Up

Ultramax rates held steady, with midweek activity insufficient to push levels higher. NOPAC fixtures reported in the high $16,000s, backhaul trades softening, and prompt tonnage in the South oversupplied due to Indonesian coal shortages. Vietnam cement exports support limited activity, while short periods for modern Ultramaxes remain around $18,500. Market remains bearish until bunker stability and geopolitical risk improve.

Handysize in the Far East continues upward, driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. Large units fix mid $12,000s–$14,000s, smaller units primarily operate on in-house cargoes, and period discussions remain firm. For Middle East Gulf/WCI directions, premiums are rising amid heightened US-Iran tensions, with one-TCT ideas reaching mid $20,000s. Backhaul trades steady: large Handies $12,000–$13,000 to Continent/Mediterranean; trips into WCCA $13,000s; USWC $10,000–$12,000.

Southeast Asia / Australia: Bunker Volatility Drives Rates

Middle East unrest reverberates in SE Asia–Australia. Vessel availability tightens, daily bunker price hikes push freight higher, and most owners avoid spot and forward bookings. Australian round voyage positions remain firm; larger Handies $15,000–$16,000 BSS Singapore, special positions $17,000–$17,500, short Pacific rounds $9,000–$10,000. Bunker scarcity continues to press the market, setting the tone for next week.

Outlook: Cautious Navigation Ahead

Across the Atlantic and Pacific, Ultramax and Handysize segments face a softening trend, driven by bunker volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising tonnage supply. Charterers exercise caution, while owners navigate limited opportunities with strategic positioning. In this environment, expert market intelligence, operational foresight, and fleet agility are critical to securing profitable employment and navigating what remains a challenging global dry bulk market.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content remain the sole responsibility of the reader.