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Freight Lines Redrawn: Strength With Selectivity Across the Dry Bulk Map

Market Report and Outlook for the Coming Week – Ultramax & Handysize
By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

The market this week has not lacked movement. What it has lacked is uniformity. Across the Atlantic and Pacific basins alike, we are seeing a freight environment that remains structurally healthy, yet increasingly selective. Gains are being defended, not chased. Corrections are measured, not disorderly. In short, this is a market recalibrating — not retreating.

South Atlantic – Ultramax

The South Atlantic Ultramax market has transitioned from acceleration to consolidation. The intense prompt tightness that fuelled the previous rally has eased, and March tonnage across ECSA has become more visible. Rates have corrected modestly, particularly in the South Brazil–Argentina range, while North Brazil remains steady but without fresh momentum.

Eastbound business is negotiating in the mid-USD 16,000s plus approximately USD 650,000 GBB. Trips into the West Mediterranean are holding close to USD 27,000 per day. Clinker cargoes ex West Africa are offering around USD 15,000, while fresh Black Sea fronthaul enquiry sees owners targeting USD 18,000 for India. Eco units positioning towards USG or ECSA are closer to USD 12,000 per day.

Importantly, this remains a positional market. Date-sensitive stems and trade-specific cargoes continue to command premiums. ECSA still provides the structural backbone of the Atlantic, and unless inward ballasters expand materially without matching cargo flow, any softness is likely to remain contained. The basin appears to be digesting gains rather than surrendering them.

South Atlantic – Handysize

The Handysize segment began the week cautiously but regained traction as activity improved. While additional Atlantic tonnage is ballasting toward ECSA, prompt supply within the South Atlantic remains relatively tight.

Fixtures reflect the basin’s resilience. A 36,000 dwt achieved USD 24,000 aps Recalada for a coastal North Brazil run. A 42,000 dwt fixed at USD 28,500 aps Upriver for redelivery West Med. Period appetite remains strong, with a 35,000 dwt securing USD 16,000 for 4–6 months, delivery Upriver with Atlantic redelivery.

The interplay between firm spot levels and steady short-period coverage reinforces confidence. Provided cargo flow continues at present pace, the segment should remain stable to firm into next week.

US Gulf – Ultramax

The US Gulf delivered its usual volatility. The week opened on a softer tone before reversing decisively as early March enquiries surfaced and prompt tonnage tightened.

Transatlantic fixtures have been reported with a “3” in front on a bss basis — a clear step up from the mid-20,000s seen earlier in the week. Fronthaul runs to India are hovering around USD 26,000 aps SW Pass, with petcoke attracting a premium. Transatlantic rounds are assessed slightly under USD 26,000 daily, while Inter-Gulf activity is firming toward the low USD 20,000s.

The Gulf likely found its short-term floor early in the week. Strength in ECSA and the Pacific provides a competitive ceiling against which the Gulf must trade. Week-to-week volatility will persist, but momentum has turned constructive again.

US Gulf – Handysize

Handys began under pressure as tonnage rebuilt, but fresh cargoes and a tightening 10-day supply window shifted leverage back toward owners. While the 20-day count stands at 49 vessels, only 14 remain within the critical 10-day window.

Transatlantic trades are fixing in the mid-USD 20,000s. A 40,000 dwt was heard at USD 28,000 aps Savannah for pellets to ARAG, and a 42,000 dwt at USD 27,000 aps SW Pass for a West Coast run.

The rebound highlights a healthier balance as we move into March. Provided cargo momentum continues, levels should hold with scope for marginal improvement.

West Coast South America – Ultramax

Limited availability continues to underpin elevated levels on the West Coast of South America. Unlike other Atlantic sub-regions, prompt supply remains tight, particularly for 10–20 March deliveries.

With ECSA expected to accelerate seasonally into April, ballasting dynamics are likely to tighten further. The coming weeks appear constructive, with realistic scope for incremental upside as charterers compete for suitably positioned units.

West Coast South America – Handysize

Handys are benefiting from the firmer Ultramax environment, with rates gradually trending upward. Supply remains controlled, and enquiry steady.

However, discipline is essential. Overly ambitious pricing risks leaving vessels exposed in the spot market. The opportunity exists — but it must be captured pragmatically. If owners balance confidence with realism, the region should remain supportive through the near term.

Continent – Ultramax

The Continent opened quietly but held firm. Scrap and fertilizer stems provided selective support, particularly as ice-class timing adjustments allowed Russian cargo focus to return.

Transatlantic rates are circulating near USD 15,000 per day, while fronthauls ex non-Russia ports are around USD 24,000. Scrap trips to the Med are expected at USD 22,000–23,000. A 23,000 dwt was concluded Morocco–Brazil during the week.

Prompt March tonnage is increasing, and fresh enquiry will be required to absorb supply. For now, the market remains balanced at last-done levels.

Continent – Handysize

Additional March positions have eased previous tightness, and rates have adjusted USD 1,000–2,000 lower in places. Yet the floor remains solid.

A 36,000 dwt fixed at USD 16,500 dop Portugal via Denmark to West Med. A 37,000 dwt concluded in the low USD 16,000s aps Continent for Ireland. Steel runs and selective fresh enquiry are helping maintain equilibrium.

The market is stabilising rather than weakening. Pragmatic positioning will determine outcomes.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – Ultramax

A quiet opening influenced by holidays gave way to measured activity. Spot-prompt stems midweek concluded above last-done levels before momentum slowed again.

Transatlantic demand provided modest support, while short-haul intra-Med trades continue in the low teens. Tonnage remains broadly balanced, and sentiment cautiously positive.

The region is steady rather than dynamic, but well-positioned vessels should continue to secure respectable returns.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – Handysize

Momentum improved gradually across both WMed and EMed. Owners held firm, prompting charterers to lift bids by USD 2,000–3,000 in some cases.

A 38,000 dwt fixed via Turkey to USEC at USD 12,000 aps plus USD 160,000 ilohc. West Med to ECSA bids were heard in the USD 8,000s aps. Period appetite remains visible, with a 35,000 dwt fixing 5–7 months at USD 16,000.

The undertone is firmer heading into next week.

Middle East / Indian Ocean / South Africa – Ultramax

This complex remains generally firm. Short-period fixtures are supporting sentiment, while coal runs from South Africa to India are fixing around USD 22,000 plus USD 220,000 APS.

Middle East–WCI enquiry continues steadily, although Ramadan-related operational slowdowns may temper execution pace. Period interest is exceeding USD 18,000 on Ultramaxes.

While ballasters toward South Africa bear monitoring, the regional structure remains sound.

Middle East Gulf – Handysize

Handys have strengthened across directions, supported by tight end-February and early March supply. Rates have improved, and despite incremental incoming tonnage, the balance remains constructive.

Levels are expected to hold steady into next week.

Far East / Southeast Asia / Australia – Ultramax

The Pacific has regained momentum post-holidays. NOPAC rounds are commanding USD 18,000–19,000, with fixtures such as USD 18,000 ex Ulsan confirming the shift. Southeast Asia to WCI runs are holding near USD 18,000, while Cigading–ECI has touched USD 19,000.

Australian rounds average USD 16,000 or better. Short-period employment has moved decisively into the USD 18,000–19,000 bracket.

Coal, grains, and backhaul steel flows are supporting the region. Sentiment remains firm, with further incremental gains possible.

Far East– Handysize

Intra-Far East trips are achieving USD 10,000–11,000 for larger units. MEG–WCI routes climbed from USD 12,000–13,000 to USD 14,000–15,000 during the week.

Pacific round voyages stand roughly at USD 8,000–9,000 (28k), USD 9,000–10,000 (32k), and USD 10,000–11,000 (38k). Period fixtures have stepped higher, with 40,000 dwt eco  vessels fixing 5–7 months at USD 15,000.

The tone is firm and improving.

Southeast Asia / Australia – Handysize

The post-holiday lift has been decisive. Australian rounds have strengthened notably, with 40,000 dwt units fixing around USD 14,000 for West Australia–China. Singapore-based 38,000 dwt vessels are achieving USD 12,000–13,000 depending on cargo.

For Australian loadings basis Singapore delivery, levels cluster at USD 9,000–10,000 (28k), USD 10,500–11,500 (32k), and USD 12,000–13,000 (38k).

Prompt tonnage is clearing, sentiment is bullish, and further rate improvement is achievable if cargo flow continues.

The Week Ahead: Strength Tested, Not Broken

Across Ultramax and Handysize segments, the market is demonstrating resilience rather than exuberance. Gains are being consolidated. Floors are holding. Volatility persists in areas such as the US Gulf, but structural support remains visible in the Pacific, South Atlantic, and Indian Ocean corridors.

The coming week should see steadiness with pockets of upside, particularly where prompt supply tightens against concentrated cargo flow. In this environment, discipline and positioning — not speculation — will define performance.

Legal Disclaimer :

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.