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China's dry bulk market usually fades into the Lunar New Year,

China's dry bulk market usually fades into the Lunar New Year, yet the first three weeks of 2026 are doing the opposite: volumes are firmer year on year, tonne-miles are improving, and freight is refusing to "switch off". That matters for the S&P market because liquidity follows confidence, and confidence follows cargo.

On demand, Chinese seaborne imports of iron ore, coal and bauxite for 1–23 January totalled 141.45 million tonnes, up 6.2% from 133.25 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. Iron ore did the heavy lifting, rising to 75.38 million tonnes from 67.22 million, while bauxite improved to 15.65 million tonnes from 14.40 million. Thermal coal was broadly flat at 47.25 million tonnes, but metallurgical coal slipped to 2.74 million tonnes from 3.39 million, a reminder that the steel chain remains selective.

The more tradable story is the origin mix. West Australia rose to 48.23 million tonnes (from 41.78 million), while the Atlantic side of Africa increased to 14.17 million tonnes (from 12.21 million). Brazil was steady at 13.25 million tonnes, and Indonesia softened to 11.91 million tonnes (from 12.77 million). This is not academic: it converts into voyage length and vessel days. The vessel breakdown confirms it: Capesize-linked volumes rose to 66.72 million tonnes from 59.34 million, VLOC activity climbed to 14.31 million tonnes from 13.36 million, and Panamax improved to 22.68 million tonnes from 21.89 million. Supramax edged up to 17.13 million tonnes from 16.70 million, but Handymax and Handysize slipped to 9.35 million tonnes (from 10.16 million) and 4.44 million tonnes (from 5.78 million), highlighting where demand is concentrated.

Freight mirrored that split. The Baltic Capesize 5TC opened at $24,687/day, slid to a mid-month low of $16,226/day on 15 January, then snapped back to $21,279/day on 21 January before easing to $19,976/day on 22 January. Panamax strengthened more steadily, with the BPI-74 average moving from $10,200/day on 2 January to $13,189/day by 22 January. Smaller sizes have not shared the same momentum: Supramax and Handysize averages moved from $11,567/day and $12,329/day on 2 January to $10,851/day and $10,760/day by 22 January, signalling that the rally is being led by long-haul and mid-sized employment rather than a broad-based lift.

Two threads help explain why Capes are holding up into late January. First, coal flows are being reshaped: December metallurgical coal imports rose strongly month on month, with inland Mongolia still dominant, but seaborne arrivals from Australia and Canada accelerating, while US-origin cargoes remained heavily curtailed by tariff friction. Second, charterers appear to be covering long-haul programs earlier than usual, particularly iron ore and bauxite ex Brazil and West Africa. With capesize fleet growth having been restrained in recent years, any sustained increase in Atlantic supply has a direct multiplier on tonne-miles, and the first Guinea cargoes linked to Simandou only reinforce the longer-term direction of travel.

For asset markets, the message is straightforward: when long-haul demand keeps Capes printing near $20k/day into the holiday window, older tonnage becomes liquid again, while modern ships command a premium for optionality. If this rhythm survives the holidays, the next leg is less about whether freight can bounce, and more about how fast S&P prices reprice that bounce into steel.

Dry S&P Activity:

Dry bulk S&P activity this week was led by an enbloc Capesize deal. The Japanese built pair "ALLY"- 186K/2005 Kawasaki and "MIKATA"- 177K/2005 Namura were reported sold enbloc for USD 37 mills. Moving down the sizes, the Kamsarmax "JAG ADITI"- 80K/2011 STX changed hands for USD 15 mills to Norwegian buyers. On the Panamax sector, the "GLOBAL BONANZA"- 75K/2011 Sasebo was sold for USD 15.3 mills basis SS/DD due, while the "KT BIRDIE"- 75K/2011 Sasebo found buyers for USD 16.5 mills. In the Ultramax sector, SPAR SHIPPING was linked with the newbuilding resales "NANTONG XIANGYU XY149" and "NANTONG XIANGYU XY150"- 64K/2026 Nantong Xiangyu at USD 36 mills each, with delivery Q3/4 2026. Further down, the "THE LOVING"- 59K/2007 Tsuneishi Cebu was sold for about USD 12 mills. Finally, the "MDM BROMO"- 54K/2007 Yangzhou Dayang changed hands for USD 8.1 mills, and the Handysize "MARIA F"- 53K/2002 Sanoyas was sold for USD 7.8 mills basis DD 09/2027.

Tanker S&P Activity:

Tanker sales this week saw notable activity across the VLCC, Suezmax & Aframax/LR2 segments. In the VLCC market, the modern scrubber fitted "SPHERICAL"- 313K/2022 Imabari was reported sold for USD 130 mills. The scrubber fitted "CSSC LIAO NING"- 308K/2020 Dalian changed hands to Greek interests for USD 112 mills, with TC attached till 05/26 at USD 41K/day. In the Suezmax sector, two Daehan newbuildings, "ARCTIC STAR" and "TROMSO STAR"- 157K/2026, were reported sold for USD 99.3 mills each, both scrubber fitted. The "FAIRWAY"- 160K/2013 HHIC was committed to Greek buyers for USD 53.5 mills, while the "DILONG SPIRIT"- 159K/2009 Bohai was reported sold for USD 42.5 mills. On the LR2 front, UAE interests were linked with a pair of coated Hyundai Vinasin units, "ELANDRA SWIFT" and "ELANDRA TERN"- 110K/2024, at USD 84 mills each, while the sister "ELANDRA SWALLOW"- 110K/2023 was reported sold at USD 84 mills. The "IONIC ARTEMIS"- 108K/2009 Tsuneishi was reported sold for USD 35.6 & modern "ARISTARCHOS"- 80K/2017 Onomichi changed hands to Greek interests for USD 44 mills. The "HAFNIA SHINANO"- 77K/2008 Dalian was sold for USD 15 mills & the "HAMBURG STAR"- 74K/2005 New Century was sold for low USD 10 mills, with SS/DD due and DPP. Finally, the MR2 "OKEE ULF"- 54K/2006 Shin Kurushima was sold for USD 12.9 mills, while the smaller "NORDIC MASA"- 21K/2009 Shin Kurushima was committed to clients of Viet Sing for USD 18 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.