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Capes take the helm as the dry bulk market powers ahead
- Λεπτομέρειες
- Δημοσιεύτηκε στις Δευτέρα, 08 Δεκεμβρίου 2025 07:05
By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director
and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant
The dry bulk market set a fresh pace this week, with the Capes once again taking the helm and pulling the global freight complex into higher waters. What unfolded across the basins was not merely a routine fluctuation but a reminder of how swiftly sentiment, capacity, and cargo flows can shift the equilibrium in a sector driven by both praxis and perception.
Capesizes surged by an impressive 13.44%, while the rest of the fleet experienced modest adjustments: Kamsarmaxes slipped 5.9%, Ultramaxes eased a marginal 0.34%, and Handies edged up 1.73%. The Baltic Dry Index responded accordingly, climbing 167 points to close at 2,727 on Friday, December 5—its trajectory signaling that the market retains both momentum and underlying dynamis.
Capesizes — Heavy Tonnage, Heavy Influence
In the Asia–Pacific, miners remained an unwavering presence, and with limited open tonnage in the region, the Australia–China route sailed steadily above USD 12/ton. The C5 index closed precisely at that mark, reaffirming a stable yet firm undertone.
Across the Atlantic, particularly in the northern sector, scarcity of vessels sparked a mid-week rally that energized both transatlantic voyages and eastbound runs. South Atlantic routes, led by Brazil and West Africa, also saw a sharp rise before softening toward week’s end.
By Friday, the Brazil–China C3 route settled at USD 25.1/ton, while Europe–Asia voyages touched USD 65,580/day. Transatlantic round voyages followed suit at USD 59,130/day—figures that underscored how Capes continue to function as the barometer of the dry bulk universe.
Kamsarmaxes — A Week of Subtle Cross-Currents
The Atlantic started the week with muted activity and visible concentration of tonnage, though mid-week cargo additions absorbed some of the pressure. In the southern Atlantic, supply and demand remained in almost Aristotelian balance, keeping fixtures stable.
East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Far East held at USD 16,500–18,500/day, European deliveries toward Asia firmed at USD 22,500–24,500/day, and transatlantic rounds hovered between USD 16,500 and 18,500/day.
In Asia, the negative tone persisted, particularly in the north, though Indonesia and Australia provided isolated opportunities attractive enough to draw interest. Round voyages between Southeast Asia and the Far East fixed around USD 19,500–21,500/day.
Supramax–Ultramax — Small Shifts, Strong Signals
Southeast Asia led with notable gains through most of the week before correcting on Friday as numerous negotiations fell through. Ultramaxes trading between SE Asia and the Far East earned USD 15,000–16,500/day.
Further north, the Far East market remained essentially static. Neither owners nor charterers seemed willing to abandon their stasis of expectations, resulting in little deviation from the previous week. NOPAC rounds fetched USD 13,000–14,500/day, trips to India sat at USD 17,500–19,000/day, and backhaul runs toward the Atlantic stayed within USD 13,500–15,000/day.
In the Middle East Gulf and West Coast India, activity resumed slowly post-holiday, with a subdued flow of stems keeping sentiment steady. Voyages eastbound paid USD 15,500–17,000/day, short-haul AG–WCI runs earned equivalent levels, and Atlantic-bound trips fixed at USD 12,000–13,500/day.
The U.S. Gulf experienced a week of oscillation—starting with charterer-driven pressure but shifting toward owners as fresh cargo entered the arena. Ultramax transatlantic voyages closed around USD 32,500–34,000/day, while U.S. Gulf to Asia paid USD 30,000–31,500/day.
In the ECSA region, limited Asia-bound stems created slight downward pressure, raising concerns for the second half of December. Voyages toward SE Asia–China settled at USD 27,500–29,000/day, while transatlantic runs fixed at USD 24,500–26,000/day.
European markets softened as cargo volumes shrank and availability increased. Local and regional trips paid USD 19,000–20,500/day; scrap cargoes toward the Mediterranean earned USD 27,500–29,000/day; eastbound runs to Asia fetched USD 24,500–26,000/day.
The Mediterranean, however, turned more vibrant. Owners held back, anticipating better prospects—an approach that proved effective as demand absorbed the growing list of candidates. Ultramaxes fixed USD 19,500–21,000/day for Asia-bound voyages, USD 10,500–12,000/day for westbound crossings, and USD 13,000–14,500/day within the region.
Handysize — Steady as She Goes, but Watch the Horizon
Handies in Europe maintained a steady keel, with sufficient cargo to match supply and keep the market balanced. Larger units achieved USD 15,000–16,500/day for regional rounds, USD 19,000–20,500/day for scrap runs to the Mediterranean, and USD 12,500–14,000/day for transatlantic voyages.
The Mediterranean displayed mixed currents. Reduced demand and heightened competition pressured most routes, although the western Med enjoyed pockets of healthier activity. Larger Handies earned USD 13,500–15,000/day for intra-Med voyages, USD 11,500–13,000/day for trips to Europe, USD 10,500–12,000/day westbound, and USD 15,500–17,000/day for long-haul voyages to Asia.
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Gulf market advanced, buoyed by rising demand for the second half of the month and a tightening supply of open tonnage. Both Atlantic- and Asia-bound runs closed around USD 21,500–23,000/day.
The ECSA region retained the positive tempo of previous weeks, with numerous fixtures reducing available capacity. Transatlantic voyages fixed at USD 24,500–26,000/day, while trips to Asia held at USD 19,500–21,000/day.
In Asia, northern markets saw slight declines due to clear oversupply, while the southern sector also softened, with many vessels struggling to secure mid-month employment. The Middle East Gulf and India remained stable after a previously intense week, despite many open units still waiting for cargo. Far East and NOPAC rounds fixed at USD 11,000–12,500/day, SE Asia–China at USD 15,000–16,500/day, and WCI–China at USD 9,500–11,000/day.
Reading the Market — And Why It Matters
In a sector where tides can turn metaphorically as quickly as they do literally, understanding the interplay between supply, demand, geopolitics, and sentiment is not just advantageous—it is foundational. The dry bulk market is not a simple ledger of numbers; it is an evolving system shaped by psychology, cargo flows, industrial demand, and regional imbalances.
Those who comprehend these dynamics and can interpret the signals before they become self-evident do more than survive turbulence—they capitalize on it. In today’s environment, the difference between following the market and steering ahead of it can define the telos of a company’s growth trajectory.
Whether navigating vessel deployment, chartering strategy, investment timing, or market exposure, expert guidance transforms risk into opportunity. And in a world where every decision echoes through balance sheets and long-term positioning, collaboration with the right maritime strategist can be the lever that elevates a company from competent to commanding.
Legal Disclaimer:
This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
