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"Navigating the Crosscurrents: Handy and Ultramax Markets Brace for November Headwinds"

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

This week’s voyage through the global bulk carrier landscape reveals a market in flux, with charterers tightening their grip and owners recalibrating their bearings. Let’s chart the course.

Handysize Sector: Trimmed Sails and Shifting Tides

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC) The Handysize fleet in the US Gulf and East Coast has hit a patch of doldrums. After a brief spell of buoyancy, the wind has slackened, and rates are easing as vessel availability swells. Despite a healthy stream of grains, petcoke, and pellets, the growing tonnage list has emboldened charterers. Early November positions are already feeling the pinch, with rates trimming down like reefed sails in a squall. The market remains balanced—but the helm is tilting toward charterers.

East Coast South America (ECSA) ECSA’s Handysize market is weathering a bearish front. Freight rates for voyages to North Brazil, Europe, and the US Gulf have corrected course, driven by thinning cargo demand. Owners are showing flexibility, keen to secure cover before the next storm. Unless a fresh cargo surge emerges, rates may continue to ebb through early November.

West Coast South America (WCSA) WCSA’s Handysize sector is holding its line, though the horizon looks hazy. Salt exports are keeping the market afloat, but the broader sentiment is softening. With fewer full stem orders on the radar and Ultramaxes scarce in these waters, Handysizes may find some buoyancy—but the ballast is growing heavier.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE) In the North Sea and surrounding waters, the Handysize market has steadied its keel. Activity remains solid, particularly for short-haul voyages, and the tonnage list hasn’t ballooned. Yet, caution is the watchword. Owners are adjusting expectations, trimming their sails to secure fixtures. If this trend persists, November may bring a slow drift toward softer rates.

Mediterranean The Mare Nostrum is quiet. A lack of fresh demand and a rising tide of tonnage—especially from the Eastern Med—is pressing rates downward. Without a robust end-of-month cargo programme, the Western basin risks slipping into neutral-to-bearish territory. The market’s Achilles’ heel remains its fragility in the absence of new demand.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India) In the MEG and Indian subcontinent, the Handysize market is becalmed. Regional cement and minor bulk movements are keeping the compass steady, but the lack of outbound cargo and rising vessel numbers may soon weigh down rates. The sector is balanced, but the barometer hints at a potential low-pressure system ahead.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE) The Pacific theatre remains a bastion of stability. Coal and minor bulk trades continue to support the market, with owners holding firm on rates for Pacific rounds. Australian and Indonesian sentiment is improving, and November’s outlook is cautiously optimistic. The key variable? Whether demand can keep pace with the growing fleet.

Ultramax Sector: Riding the Swell, Bracing for the Break

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC) The Ultramax market in the US Gulf has hit a trough. October stems have cleared, and fresh cargoes are scarce. The once-tight supply of vessels has loosened, and sentiment has turned bearish. With few inquiries for early November, owners may need to recalibrate expectations to stay afloat.

West Coast South America (WCSA) Ultramaxes in WCSA are faring better, buoyed by salt exports. But as October wanes, the lack of new stems suggests stability at best. If charterers gain the upper hand, rates could slip. Still, the limited availability of Ultramaxes may act as a bulwark against sharp declines.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE) The Ultramax sector in Northern Europe is softening, echoing the lull in US Gulf demand. Rates for shorter trips remain steady, but the rising tide of tonnage and fewer fresh inquiries point to a neutral-to-bearish forecast. November may bring more drift than drive.

Mediterranean Eastern Med Ultramaxes are under pressure, with ballasting vessels crowding the lanes and demand running dry. The Western Med is faring slightly better, but cargo opportunities are scarce. Without a fresh injection of demand, the region may see further rate erosion.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India) The MEG Ultramax market is steady but uninspired. Minor bulk cargoes are keeping the sector balanced, but the lack of external demand and a growing fleet may cap any rate recovery. The outlook remains flat, with no clear wind in the sails.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE) In Southeast Asia and the Far East, Ultramaxes are holding their course. NOPAC grain shipments and coal/clinker trades from Indonesia and Australia are providing ballast. November’s forecast is cautiously optimistic, with rates likely to remain steady or see modest gains—depending on how demand and tonnage align.

Market Predictions: Charting the Week Ahead

The prevailing winds across both sectors suggest a bearish drift. The US Gulf, ECSA, and Mediterranean are particularly exposed to downward pressure, as cargo volumes ebb and tonnage swells. Meanwhile, the North Atlantic and Pacific regions are expected to remain relatively stable, though upward momentum is elusive.

Owners may face choppy waters in the coming weeks, especially in oversupplied regions. Yet, demand for coal and grains—particularly in Southeast Asia and the Far East—could offer a lifeline, cushioning against further rate erosion.

Final Bearings

This week’s market pulse underscores the importance of strategic navigation. In a sector where fortunes shift with the tide, aligning with seasoned expertise is not just prudent—it’s imperative. As a Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant and Chartering Executive, I bring not only insight but actionable intelligence to help your company sail ahead of the fleet.

Whether you're recalibrating your chartering strategy or seeking to optimize your commercial operations, the right partnership can turn market headwinds into tailwinds. Let’s chart that course—together.

Disclaimer: This report is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, commercial recommendation, or solicitation. The views expressed are based on data and market observations considered reliable at the time of writing, but no warranty is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Any decisions based on this content are at the sole discretion and risk of the reader.