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The VLCC market has shifted gears in September

The VLCC market has shifted gears in September. On our Baltic series, the benchmark rose from about USD 45,155/day on 1 September to USD 87,532/day on 18 September — a 94% surge in barely two and a half trading weeks. The climb accelerated after 10 September: we crossed USD 70,000/day on the 11th and brushed USD 88,000/day by the 17th, with the intra-September average now roughly USD 65,300/day. Context matters: until end-August, the year's high was just over USD 60,500/day, so this is not a gentle repricing; it's a regime change.

At today's USD 87.5k, we are running at a little above 2.1x the 2025 year-to-date average of roughly USD 41,500/day and about 5.0x the five-year average (c. USD 17,400/day) calculated from 19 September 2020 to today. We also haven't seen these levels in over five years; the last print north of today's mark was on 30 April 2020, during the floating-storage super-spike, when the Baltic topped USD 92,500/day and briefly soared well above that through late April. Even the March 2023 rally stalled around USD 77,600/day. In other words, this September breakout is the strongest since the pandemic storage episode and the first time in 2025 that VLCCs have decisively retaken leadership from midsize crude segments.

What changed? First, fundamental tonne-mile demand improved right where VLCCs live. Fixtures out of the Middle East Gulf firmed into mid-September, and trans-Atlantic to Pacific VLCC legs rebounded from their summer lows, re-widening voyage lengths and tightening the list. That shift shows up in the quality of the rally: charterers have been holding on-subs at elevated numbers rather than cancelling when the tape wobbles, a tell-tale sign of real S&D pressure rather than hot air. Second, geopolitics continue to push barrels and tonnage out of their old grooves. Sanctions and trade frictions are diverting Russian-related flows and lifting demand for compliant capacity, while the compliant VLCC fleet hasn't grown meaningfully since 2021 as older units drifted into the shadow fleet or aged out. When demand nudges up against a structurally tight supply side, upside convexity appears.

Third, there's a seasonal and macro overlay. Q4 is historically VLCC's strongest quarter, and OPEC+ is nudging output higher into year-end. Those volumes haven't fully hit the water yet, but the market is already clearing the forward program at richer numbers. Add refinery maintenance and the prospect of inventory builds in Q4 and Q1, and you have the pre-conditions for contango and, if onshore tanks fill quickly, a modest return of floating storage. It doesn't take 2020-style storage to move the needle: even small increments absorb capacity and force charterers up the curve.

It's also worth noting that broker assessments and pool prints have already flashed six-figure headlines this week on individual voyages, even as the Baltic sits just shy of that line. The dispersion reflects route mix, eco/scrubber premia, and timing, but the direction is unambiguous. For S&P, this kind of step-change typically pulls prompt modern tonnage into tighter negotiating ranges and narrows the bid-ask; for period, it encourages owners to keep spot exposure high in anticipation of a Q4 follow-through. Unless oil supply or risk sentiment abruptly reverse, September's jump looks less like a spike and more like the opening phase of VLCC's delayed upcycle.

S&P Activity:

Dry:

The dry S&P activity was strong this week, with the Ultramax/Supramax sector taking the lion's share, as almost half of the sales were in that segment. On the Newcastlemax sector, the "Mineral Cloudbreak" - 205K/2012 HHIC was sold to Hong Kong buyers for USD 39 mills, while the Capesize "Wakayama Maru" - 182K/2013 Koyo was sold to clients of Asyad for USD 37 mills. On the Kamsarmax sector, the "Nord Taurus" - 82K/2016 Imabari changed hands for USD 27.5 mills. Moreover, the Panamax "Alpha Loyalty" - 76K/2007 Tsuneishi was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 10.25 mills basis DD due, while the "Eirini P." - 77K/2004 Tsuneishi found new owners for USD 8.5 mills. On the Ultramax sector, the "CMB Teniers" - 63K/2021 Shin Kasado and the "CMB Van Dijck" - 63K/2020 Shin Kasado were sold to clients of HMM for excess USD 65 mills. Moreover, on the same sector, the Scrubber fitted "Elizabeth M II" - 63K/2020 Nantong Xiangyu changed hands for USD 30 mills, while the Electronic M/E "Bulk Castor" - 67K/2015 Mitsui sold for USD 24 mills. Furthermore, the Scrubber fitted & Electronic M/E "African Cheetah" - 67K/2014 Mitsui which sold to Bangladeshi buyers for USD 24 mills. On the Supramax sector, the OHBS "Queen Flower" - 50K/2007 Oshima was sold to clients of Devbulk for mid USD 16 mills. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the "T Symphony" - 32K/2011 Taizhou Maple was sold for USD 8.5 mills, while the "CH Doris" - 34K/2010 Zhejiang Zhenghe and the "CH Bella" - 34K/2010 Zhejiang Zhenghe both changed hands for USD 8.2 mills each, basis SS/DD due.

Tanker:

This week witnessed strong activity across all tanker segments. In the Aframax/LR2 sector, the scrubber-fitted "Advantage Summer" - 156K/2010 Jiangsu Rongsheng was sold for USD 38 mills, while the older Non Scrubber "Ottoman Nobility" - 153K/2005 HHI changed hands for USD 27 mills. On the Aframax/LR2 sector the Electronic M/E "SKS Driva" - 119K/2010 Hyundai Samho was sold for USD 34 mills to clients of Torm. Moreover, the "Patmos Warrior" - 106K/2007 Sumitomo was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 27.5—28 mills. In the Panamax/LR1 sector, the "Seaways Luzon" - 75K/2005 STX was sold for excess USD 11 mills. Turning to the MR2 sector, the "Astir Lady" - 50K/2011 SPP changed hands for low USD 21 mills, the "Hafnia Taurus" - 50K/2011 GSI was acquired by Seven Islands for USD 18 mills, while the "Elandra Corallo" - 51K/2008 SPP was sold to Ancora Tankers for region USD 17 mills. Among smaller tankers, the "Jipro Isis" - 38K/2008 Shin Kurushima was sold to Avin International for USD 13.35 mills. In the small chemical/product tanker space, the "Asia Aspara" - 14K/2012 Fujian Shenglong found new owners for USD 10.5 mills, while the stainless-steel "F Mumbai" - 20K/2005 Usuki was sold to Chinese buyers for mid USD 13 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.