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The global tanker market is currently navigating a period of heightened uncertainty

The global tanker market is currently navigating a period of heightened uncertainty, heavily shaped by the sanctions imposed on oil exports from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia by the EU, UK, and US. These measures, aimed at restricting the flow of crude from politically sensitive regions, have sidelined a significant number of vessels and rerouted global trade patterns. Recently, however, there have been increasing signs that the tide may be shifting. In the case of Iran, nuclear negotiations have reopened channels for possible sanctions relief. Venezuela, too, is seeing signs of political normalization that could open the door to gradual reintegration into global markets. Even Russia, despite the ongoing war and wide condemnation, remains part of global energy discussions. This evolving backdrop raises important questions for the future of tanker supply and trade flows.

Right now, about 470 tankers—nearly 10% of the global fleet in deadweight terms—are effectively sidelined due to these sanctions. Most of this capacity lies within the Aframax/LR2, Suezmax and VLCC segments, with 196, 59 and 85 vessels respectively, totaling nearly 56 million DWT, almost 90% of the total sanctioned million DWT. What’s more, these aren't fresh-out-of-the-yard ships. A significant portion of them are aging, many past the 19-year mark. In fact, sanctioned Aframaxes and LR2s make up about 38% of their 16+ year-old peer group, while sanctioned Suezmaxes and VLCCs represent 25% and 27% of the older fleets in their respective segments.

So, what happens if the sanctions are lifted? On paper, someone might expect a flood of tonnage to hit the market, pressuring freight rates—especially in segments like Aframax and VLCC where availability has been tight. And sure, some of the younger ships might re-enter the fray quickly. But for most of the sanctioned fleet, reality paints a different picture. Older ships, long operating under the radar in grey markets, will likely struggle to meet modern vetting standards. Many won’t even be considered by top-tier charterers. The more probable outcome? A fast track to the scrapyard.

This is where things get interesting. If a good chunk of these ships ends up scrapped rather than reintegrated, the market could actually see a net tightening in supply. That’s especially relevant given the current orderbook of 1,189 tankers, totaling around 102 million DWT. Yes, fresh tonnage is coming—but it’ll take time. In the meantime, the fleet is aging - almost 60% of today's fleet will be over 16 years old in 2027 -and the retirement of old sanctioned units could help ease concerns about oversupply.

Of course, sanction relief wouldn’t just affect the supply side. It could also reshape trade flows. Iranian and Venezuelan barrels could once again travel established routes, reviving long-dormant trades and enhancing efficiency. If demand holds up—and that’s a big if—it might even provide a new boost to tanker utilization.

In the end, lifting sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia won’t just unlock idle capacity. It’ll probably force the market to reckon with a flood of old tonnage that no longer meets today’s standards. And while that may briefly rattle rates, scrapping could quietly rebalance the equation. We’re looking at a potentially transformative moment—one that blends geopolitical shifts, regulatory pressure, and good old-fashioned fleet renewal all in one.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

On the Capesize sector, Greek buyers acquired the “Imperator Australis” - 176K/2012 Shanghai Jiangnan for USD 25.5 mills. The Panamax “Toro” - 77K/2008 Imabari was sold for USD 12.2 mills. On the Supramax sector, the “Ingwar Selmer” - 58K/2011 Yangzhou Dayang found new owners for USD 11.6 mills. Moreover, on the same sector, Chinese buyers acquired the Scrubber fitted “Oriole”- 58K/2011 Yangzhou Dayang for USD 12.8 mills, while the scrubber fitted “Star Petrel” - 58K/2011 Yangzhou Dayang was also sold to Chinese buyers for USD12.5 mills. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the “Bunun Orchid” - 38K/2021 Imabari was sold for region USD 25 mills, while Chinese buyers acquired the “ID Pioneer”- 36K/2012 Taizhou for USD10.1 mills.

Wet:

On the LR1 sector, Chinese buyers acquired the “Chemtrans Adriatic” - 74K/2005 New Century for high USD 10 mills. The MR2 sector demonstrated significant activity, accounting for 5 out of 6 sales. The “Nord Joy” - 50K/2018 JMU and the “Nord Jewel” - 50K/2018 JMU were sold for USD 74 mills enbloc. Finally, the “Ps Capri”- 51K/2011 STX was sold for mid USD 18 mills to Greek buyers.

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