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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 30th May 2025

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

TMC Commercial Director

Handysize & Ultramax Market Update: Week in Review

As the dry bulk market navigates ongoing supply-demand imbalances, the Handysize and Ultramax segments show a mixed picture across major loading regions. Below is a concise regional breakdown highlighting current market sentiment, rate dynamics, and tonnage trends.

Handysize Market Overview:

• US Gulf & US East Coast (USG/USEC): The Handysize sector in the USG and USEC displayed tentative signs of recovery this week. A slight tightening of available tonnage, coupled with a stable cargo flow, has fostered cautious optimism. While rates have not surged, market players are watching closely for signs of momentum building in the early part of June.
• East Coast South America (ECSA): The region continues to face headwinds, with a lengthy list of spot vessels exerting downward pressure on freight levels. Although a few June cargoes are surfacing, the demand is not yet sufficient to shift the balance. Market sentiment remains uncertain until a clearer picture of forward stems emerges.
• Continent (Northwest Europe): Activity in the Continent was subdued, with limited fresh requirements contributing to a relatively flat market. Some new fixtures with June laycans offered a hint of change, but further cargo flow will be needed to determine whether a sustainable uptick is on the horizon.
• Mediterranean: The Western Mediterranean saw an early-week uptick in demand, but this was not enough to significantly alter market dynamics in owners' favor. A few fresh cargoes scheduled for June could support stability moving forward, though fundamentals remain delicately balanced.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): Despite a limited number of fixtures, sentiment in the Handysize segment remains firm, underpinned by a tight tonnage list. With prompt vessels scarce, rates are likely to hold steady or potentially strengthen slightly in the coming days, assuming demand materializes.
• Southeast Asia / Far East: Northern Asia maintained a stable tone, with little deviation from prior weeks. In contrast, Southern Asia firmed up in the latter half of the week, driven by selective demand. Barring any major shifts, the region is expected to trend sideways in the short term.

Ultramax Market Overview:

• US Gulf & US East Coast (USG/USEC): The week opened with increased activity, continuing the momentum from prior sessions. However, midweek saw a reversal as mounting vessel supply coincided with a reduction in available cargoes. The near-term outlook is subdued, with limited upside potential unless demand recovers significantly.
• East Coast South America (ECSA): A muted week for Ultramax tonnage in ECSA, with activity largely confined to early fixtures carried over from the previous week. Front haul trips offered slightly better returns, but the market overall lacked the necessary demand to support broader rate improvements.
• Continent (Northwest Europe): Freight levels continued to face downward pressure amid insufficient cargo volumes. With ECSA and USG underperforming, vessels are increasingly opting to remain in the Continent, contributing to oversupply and further weighing on rates.
• Mediterranean: A quiet week for the Mediterranean, where a healthy supply of open tonnage outpaced limited demand. In the absence of stronger cargo flow, owners were forced to trim their rate expectations to secure employment. Demand-side improvement is critical to any short-term recovery
• South Africa (SAFR): The South African market offered little support to regional players, including those in the Indian Ocean, where rates continued to soften. The sector appears yet to find a floor, with bearish sentiment likely to persist into next week.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): Forthcoming Eid al-Adha - The Festival of Sacrifice, holidays led to a noticeable slowdown in activity, resulting in a backlog of open vessels and weakened sentiment. With limited fixtures concluded, the immediate outlook remains negative, barring a post-holiday cargo influx.
• Southeast Asia / Far East: Both Northern and Southern sectors held flat this week, with NOPAC and Indonesian cargoes offering limited support. Australia and West Coast Central America routes provided modest premiums, though not sufficient to buoy the broader market. Without a significant uptick in demand, rates are expected to remain under pressure.

Conclusion: Across both the Handysize and Ultramax sectors, market conditions remain largely mixed, shaped by regional cargo flows, tonnage availability, and broader macroeconomic influences. While certain regions such as the MEG/India for Handysize show signs of tightness, much of the market remains subdued, especially in the Ultramax segment. As we move further into June, sustained demand growth will be key to rebalancing these markets.

Disclaimer

This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice