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Capes Lead the Dry Bulk Market’s Recovery as Freight Rates Regain Momentum

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant-Chartering Executive & TMC MARITIME Commercial Director

and

Dr Fotios-Evangelos Karlis

Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

The dry bulk market showed signs of recovery over the past week compared with the preceding period, with Capes taking centre stage and providing the principal impetus for the broader improvement. Ultramaxes and Handies also moved into positive territory, while Kamsarmaxes recorded weekly losses approaching 10%, underscoring the uneven nature of the market’s performance across the different vessel segments.

More specifically, Capes recorded a gain of 16.68%, while Kamsarmaxes declined by 8.86%, with Ultramaxes and Handies advancing by 1.18% and 0.89%, respectively, compared with the previous week. Against this backdrop, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 149 points on a weekly basis, closing at 2,660 points on Friday, 23 October.

A closer examination of the dry bulk market reveals how freight rates and trading sentiment evolved across the various vessel sizes and geographical regions, beginning with the Capesize segment, whose performance provided the strongest support for the market’s recovery.

Capesize: Atlantic Strength and Asian Demand Set the Pace

In Asia, increased activity among operators and mining companies, combined with the possibility of weather-related delays in China, drove freight rates higher. As a result, cargoes scheduled for loading at the beginning of the following month were being fixed at firmer levels, reflecting the strengthening market sentiment. On Friday, the index for the Australia–China route (C5) closed at $14.10 per tonne.

Across the Atlantic, and particularly in its southern reaches, southern Brazil and West Africa appeared to retain the upper hand, with freight rates on the principal route to China (C3) gaining $2–3 per tonne over the course of the week. The picture in the northern Atlantic, by contrast, was less encouraging, as demand for transatlantic voyages remained limited and the market struggled to match the momentum building further south.

By Friday, freight rates on the Brazil–China route (C3) stood at $33.87 per tonne, while voyages from Europe to Asia (C9) reached $65,030 per day. Transatlantic round voyages (C8) closed at $29,660 per day, reflecting the contrasting conditions prevailing across the Atlantic basin.

Kamsarmax: An Atlantic Market Under Pressure, with Asia Offering Some Relief

In the Atlantic, the market came under pressure as demand for grain and mineral cargoes remained subdued. At the same time, an oversupply of available tonnage strengthened charterers’ negotiating position in both the northern and southern parts of the basin, leaving owners facing a more challenging fixing environment.

Indicatively, freight rates for voyages from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) to the Far East stood at $17,000–19,000 per day, with delivery in Asia. Voyages from Europe to Asia, with delivery in Europe, were fixed at $27,500–29,500 per day, while transatlantic round voyages, with delivery at Gibraltar, ranged between $21,000 and $23,000 per day.

Asia, meanwhile, offered a more encouraging picture, with satisfactory demand from Australia supported by activity in Indonesia and coal cargoes. The North Pacific, however, remained subdued, with limited employment opportunities available to shipowners and fewer attractive options across the region. Freight rates for round voyages in Southeast Asia and the Far East ranged between $23,000 and $25,000 per day, with delivery in the Far East.

Ultramax: Regional Resilience Amid Uneven Demand and Growing Tonnage Supply

In Southeast Asia, the market maintained a positive tone, as the balance between supply and demand helped sustain activity despite the downward pressures that continued to weigh on sentiment. Ultramax freight rates for voyages between Southeast Asia and the Far East stood at $20,500–22,000 per day, reflecting the market’s ability to retain a degree of stability under mixed conditions.

Further north, the Far East was particularly active, supported by a steady flow of cargoes in the North Pacific and a healthy number of backhaul voyages. Ultramax rates for North Pacific round voyages (NOPAC) ranged between $21,500 and $23,000 per day, while voyages to India commanded $29,500–31,000 per day. Backhaul voyages towards the Atlantic were fixed at $19,500–21,000 per day, illustrating the range of employment opportunities available to owners operating across the region.

In the Middle East Gulf and West Coast India, the market moved broadly sideways compared with the previous week, with activity remaining limited and only a handful of cargoes emerging from both Oman and Fujairah. Whatever support the market received came from the Red Sea and South Africa, which provided some additional impetus amid an otherwise restrained trading environment. Freight rates for voyages to the Far East ranged between $13,500 and $15,000 per day, with delivery on the West Coast of India (WCI).

Across the Atlantic, and particularly in the US Gulf, the market held broadly steady, supported by demand for voyages to India and the Eastern Mediterranean, mainly involving petcoke cargoes. Nevertheless, both supply and demand remained limited overall, preventing a more pronounced improvement in market conditions. Ultramax rates for transatlantic voyages stood at $29,000–30,500 per day, while voyages to Asia commanded $33,500–35,000 per day.

The East Coast of South America (ECSA) remained broadly unchanged despite the pressures affecting the market, with new cargo enquiries limited and concentrated mainly in southern Brazil. At the same time, the growing supply of available tonnage created fresh downward pressure, particularly on voyages to Asia, where competition for employment became more pronounced. Transatlantic voyages, by contrast, demonstrated greater resilience, holding at the previous week’s levels. Freight rates for voyages to Southeast Asia and China ranged between $34,000 and $35,500 per day, while transatlantic voyages to the Mediterranean and Europe were fixed at $35,500–37,000 per day.

The European market began the week at a subdued pace, although conditions gradually improved as an increasing number of cargoes emerged for November loading. Even so, the additional availability of tonnage helped restore a degree of balance, tempering the impact of the improving cargo flow. Freight rates for local round voyages ranged between $22,500 and $24,000 per day, while scrap shipments to the Mediterranean commanded $32,000–33,500 per day and voyages to Asia fetched $29,500–31,000 per day.

The Mediterranean opened the week on a strong footing, with a substantial number of cargoes carrying October loading dates. That initial momentum, however, failed to carry through the remainder of the week, as completed fixtures were not replenished by a sufficient flow of fresh cargoes. Indicatively, an Ultramax fixed for a voyage from the Mediterranean to Asia commanded $23,000–24,500 per day, with delivery at Canakkale in the Dardanelles. Voyages to the opposite side of the Atlantic were fixed at $13,500–15,000 per day, while intra-Mediterranean voyages ranged between $16,500 and $18,000 per day, excluding war zones.

Handysize: Firm European Demand and Regional Opportunities Sustain the Market

In Europe, the Handysize market maintained its momentum, underpinned by a steady flow of grain cargoes. Freight rates, however, varied according to destination, reflecting differences in demand and available employment across the region. For the larger vessels in the segment, rates stood at $21,000–22,500 per day for round voyages, $30,500–32,000 per day for scrap shipments to the Mediterranean and $15,000–16,500 per day for transatlantic voyages.

The Mediterranean began the week on an upward trajectory, supported by stronger demand from the Black Sea. The western basin, by contrast, moved at a slower pace, with less pronounced activity. Freight rates for larger vessels in the Handysize segment, those exceeding 36,000 dwt, ranged between $14,000 and $15,500 per day for intra-Mediterranean voyages, $11,500–13,000 per day for voyages to Europe, $9,000–10,500 per day for voyages across the Atlantic and $22,000–23,500 per day for voyages to Asia, with delivery at Canakkale.

In the US Gulf, the market opened the week on a subdued note, but activity gathered pace as the days progressed, with a greater number of cargoes emerging both within the Caribbean and for transatlantic employment. Freight rates for larger vessels in the segment stood at $18,500–20,000 per day for voyages to the opposite side of the Atlantic, with the same range applying to voyages to Asia.

The East Coast of South America (ECSA) retained its positive momentum, supported by stronger demand from the west coast. Northern Brazil also performed well, absorbing a considerable number of vessels arriving from the opposite side of the Atlantic and providing additional employment opportunities for owners. Freight rates for transatlantic voyages to Europe and the Mediterranean ranged between $30,000 and $31,500 per day, while voyages to Asia commanded $28,500–30,000 per day.

In Asia, particularly in the northern part of the region, the market maintained satisfactory levels, supported by backhaul cargoes that helped sustain employment opportunities. Further south, conditions remained unchanged, with a limited number of fresh cargoes and a marginal increase in available tonnage, leaving the market broadly balanced but without any significant new impetus.

Further west, in the Middle East Gulf and India, the week began with little activity. As the days passed, however, a greater number of steel cargoes destined for the Atlantic entered the market, providing some additional opportunities for owners. Freight rates for larger Handysize vessels on round voyages in the Far East and North Pacific (NOPAC) ranged between $19,000 and $20,500 per day, while voyages from Southeast Asia to China were fixed at $18,000–19,500 per day. Voyages from West Coast India to China, meanwhile, commanded $11,500–13,000 per day.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.