Market Commentary by Xclusiv

The lock down in Shanghai continues with information suggesting another month of restrictions. The surging coronavirus cases have driven major shipyards into lockdown. Chinese authorities have ordered Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding, Jiangnan Shipyard and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding to halt operations since the end of March and many shipowners have been warned that there will be delays to newbuilding deliveries.

The effects of the Covid surge in China are adding to the uncertainty about the future fuels, vessel designs and technology that will be required to meet coming decarbonisation regulations, factors that have restrained new ship ordering particularly for bulkers and tankers recently. Furthermore, non-dry bulk and non-tanker ship orders are filling the shipyards, which further limits the scope for new ship contracts in the dry / wet segment.

The Bulk Carrier orderbook trend over the past 10 years is downward, having dropped from over 2,500 ships which were on order in April 2012 to around 760 ships on order as of April 2022. The tanker orderbook also follows the same decreasing trend as Bulkers, as it decreased to 528 ships on order in April 2022 from 1,500 ships on order ten years back. On the other hand, the Container orderbook is the big winner as it has a significant increase over the last 10 years. It is worth mentioning that in October 2020 there were only 310 containers on order (a ten-year low) but it has rapidly shot up to 867 ships on order (ten years high) in April 2022. This is an increase of 180% in just one and a half year.
Orderbook to fleet ratio in DWT/TEU has also significantly decreased within the last ten years for Bulkers and Tankers. In April 2012, the ratio was 34% for Bulkers and 17% for Tankers and in April 2022 the ratio is below 7% for both, a fall of 80% and 60% respectively. Specifically, the Bulker & Tanker Orderbook to Fleet ratios as of April 2022 (Bulker 6.59% & Tanker 6.38%) are the lowest since 1996. Containers have again the “lions share” with an 215% increase in the orderbook to fleet ratio since October 2020 (ten years low point), and a slight increase of around 6% since April 2012.

As we mentioned before the main reasons that affect Tanker and Bulker orderbook negatively are mainly the uncertainty concerning the new emission policies as it is not known yet nor what kind of fuel will prevail neither which technology to adopt, the very high newbuilding prices compared to the lower rates. On the other hand, the strong earnings and healthy balance sheets for all the container ships owners, the high cashflows generated since mid-2020 that were in need to be re-invested, the very high rates created mainly through significant lower vessel supply than demand and high port congestion, have given the chance for owners to renew their fleet with larger and more efficient ships and driving the containers orders to record high numbers.

Many analysts and owners believe that until zero-emission-ready ships become commercially viable, and the requisite fuelling infrastructure is being built out globally, the bulker and tanker orderbooks will stick in “shallow waters”, remaining at historically low levels.

Sale and Purchase:

Despite the volatility in the dry bulk market during the past month, as well as Easter & Ramadan holidays, the S&P dry bulk activity remains strong. Following the previous week’s Capesize sales, the “Aquamarine”- 182K/2009 Odense Staalskibvaerft sold for USD 26.5mills to clients of Alpha Bulkers, while clients of Chartworld shipping acquired the 3-year older BWTS fitted “Aquascope”- 174K/2006 SWS sold for USD 19.7 mills. On the Ultramax sector, the BWTS fitted “Navigare Bacca” - 61K/2016 Imabari sold for USD 32.5 mills to Bangladeshi buyers. The Supramax “NZ Shanghai” - 55K/2010 Jiangsu Qinfeng sold via auction for USD 16.9 mills. Lastly, the Handysize “Promise 3” - 32K/2010 Samho changed hands for USD 17.2 mills.

The uptick of the spot rates in the tanker sector has increased the volume of S&P transactions. On the VLCC sector, clients of Euronav acquired the “Chelsea” - 300K/2020 Daewoo & the “Ghillie”- 300K/2019 Daewoo for USD 181 mills enbloc. Furthermore, the Scrubber fitted Aframax “Banda Sea”- 106K/2007 Sumitomo sold for USD 21 mills to Greek buyers. MR vessels have dominated the tanker S&P transactions with 47% of the total transactions in the MR segment. The BWTS fitted “Largo Sea”- 50K/2016 SPP found new owners for excess USD 30 mills. Moreover, the “Songa Pride” - 50K/2016 Brodotrogir & the “Trogir Kairos I”- 50K/2015 Brodotrogir sold for USD 50.5 mills enbloc to clients of Hammonia Schiffsholding, while the 13-year “Forres Park” - 47K/2009 HMD sold for mid/ high USD 16 mills. Finally, on the MR1 sector, clients of Chemikalien Seetransport acquired the BWTS fitted & ICE 1A “Seaways Cape Horn” - 38K/2006 HMD , the “Seaways Ambrose” - 38K/2006 HMD & the “Seaways Canaveral” - 38K/2006 HMD for USD 10.5 mills each, with long subjects to buyers, while the BWTS fitted & ICE 1A “Seaways Chania” - 37K/2006 HMD sold for USD 10.5 mills to clients of Transka Tankers, with long subjects to buyers.